Unionists facing their own crisis in elections

THERE are no votes for the Ulster Unionist Party in Tipperary

THERE are no votes for the Ulster Unionist Party in Tipperary. All the more credit to Ken Maginnis for taking time off from canvassing in Co Fermanagh and travelling south to appear on last Monday's Questions and Answers. We need to be reminded that there are prominent unionist politicians committed to seeking a just and lasting settlement between the two traditions on this island.

Ken Maginnis, though he sometimes huffs and puffs, is one of those who has seen it as his duty not only to defend the interests of his own community, but to try and think his way around the obstacles facing his opponents.

It was his original proposal, that an international expert should be brought in to examine the problem of paramilitary arms, which led to the appointment of Senator George Mitchell and his colleagues. Mr Maginnis is also known to favour the idea that Senator Mitchell should be given a prominent role in the forthcoming talks.

He deserves to be listened to seriously when he points out, as he did on Monday night, how far unionists like himself have already moved and that his community, like the nationalists, also has to come to terms with a bruising legacy of mistrust.

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The experience of the 1992 talks, for example, when unionists believed they tried to engage seriously with the Irish Government and were simply spurned for their pains, still rankles bitterly with the UUP leadership.

Mr Maginnis's bear like presence is the more important just now because of the way his party leader is conducting himself. David Trimble is showing symptoms of alarming panic. His warning that he would be prepared to bring down John Major's government if there was any "backsliding" on the decommissioning issue is a tactic that could easily backfire.

As the British Prime Minister, to ringing Tory cheers, is ranging his government against Europe, Mr Trimble's threat is more likely to alienate those friends within the Conservative Party who have been most vocal in supporting the unionist cause.

IT MAY BE that the bluster is directed at Mr Trimble's own supporters. Next week's election is extremely important for him. He asked for this poll and it will be the first popular test of his leadership of the UUP. The party has always commanded the support of the larger part of the unionist community.

The only exception to this in electoral terms has been the poll for the European Parliament, when the Rev Ian Paisley's prodigious charisma has regularly put him ahead in what is essentially a contest between personalities.

This time, despite the fact that the UUP is putting up 78 candidates, the party could be in for a shock. Mr Trimble himself hinted at what might happen when he said this week that there was a bewildering array of parties describing themselves on the ballot paper as "unionist" and that they would all be competing for the same votes.

Privately, some senior unionists are already saying that because of this, they expect the SDLP to top the poll. That in itself would be a shock in terms of Northern Ireland politics. But already the fear is being voiced that the Democratic Unionist Party will come second, not least because Ian Paisley has been allowed to put his name on the ballot paper.

If that were to happen it would be a humiliation for Mr Trimble, who was elected as leader to bring sharpness, intellectual confidence, even charisma to a party which was thought to have suffered electorally under the supposedly dull and uncharismatic James Molyneaux. But it would also have serious implications for the forthcoming talks. A strong and confident Ulster Unionist Party which commands the support of its own community is essential for a settlement.

Inevitably perhaps, the media focus of recent weeks has been on the likelihood of the IRA restoring its ceasefire and all the questions that flow from that will the two governments agree a formula to resolve the decommissioning issue? Will Sinn Fein be admitted to the talks? What will the attitude of the Irish government and the SDLP be if it is excluded? And so on. There has been endless speculation about the state of the nationalist consensus and whether it still exists.

In fact, all the signs are that the nationalist position is stronger and more coherent than it has been for quite a long time. It is clear that despite some highly publicised hiccups, both governments do want to find some way of offering the necessary reassurances to Sinn Fein that the June 10th talks will not be derailed by the decommissioning issue.

It should also be recognised - even though Sinn Fein continues to dismiss these steps as "cynical" - that the British government is attempting to make good its previous sins of omission on such issues as the transfer of prisoners.

At last it seems to be accepted, as Seamus Mallon has insisted on pointing out, that the most damaging result of focusing exclusively on questions of arms and explosives has been to marginalise politics, and the serious challenge which will face all parties when the talks do finally start.

Even the IRA, while it still refuses to renew its ceasefire, has stopped short of the violence which many people feared after the Docklands bomb. One hesitates to write anything that may sound optimistic on this score, but it does seem possible that it, too, is allowing space for political developments that could bring about another ceasefire.

NEXT week's elections will be important in the development of this scenario. Given its vehement opposition to the whole idea of elections, it is not surprising that Sinn Fein should be worried about whether its vote will turn out. The reason why so many of its candidates have alleged or proven records of activity within the IRA is to bring out the sceptics, impress on them the importance of Sinn Fein being seen to win a serious mandate.

If the SDLP does perform as well as expected, the effects will be twofold. It will rally the confidence of the large majority of the nationalist community in Northern Ireland which yearns for a firm restoration of the peace and the chance to work out an equitable settlement with its unionist neighbours. The chances of this happening will be greatly increased by the fact that a real success in the elections will bring John Hume firmly back into the forefront of the political process.

In recent, weeks, since the breakdown of the IRA ceasefire in fact, the SDLP leader has seemed to retreat, like Achilles to his tent. No doubt he has been active behind the scenes, but his public voice has appeared to falter and this has caused dismay to many of his supporters.

At every stage during the long years of the conflict in Northern Ireland, before the very idea of an inclusive peace process was even imaginable, John Hume's political skills and commitment have steadied the situation in the worst of times and offered a new vision for the future. His voice is needed now, more than ever, when peace seems at once so near and so impossibly distant.