The political crisis in Ukraine has deepened alarmingly over the weekend.
Following Saturday's majority vote in the parliament saying the election eight days ago was invalid, yesterday saw votes in the pro-Russian eastern part of the country backing the holding of a referendum on autonomy. The pro-Western candidate, Mr Viktor Yushchenko, is stronger in the western part of the country. His opponent, Mr Victor Yanokovych, said the Ukraine is on the brink of catastrophe and in danger of splitting in two if a compromise cannot be reached. He warned that if violence erupts it could be unstoppable.
The space for a possible compromise to slow down the crisis has shrunk rapidly and dramatically. But it remains essential if events are not to outpace political efforts to allow Ukrainians and outside interests find the time and understanding to resolve their deep differences. Ukraine is being terrorised by excessively simplistic slogans and demands raised on the back of the deeply flawed two-round presidential election. It saw blatant fraud organised by state authorities in favour of Mr Yanokovych, which probably gave him an unfair victory. But Mr Yushchenko's campaign has also questions to answer about fraudulent practices. And enormous geopolitical pressures from Moscow and Washington have dangerously raised the political temperature.
All eyes will be on Ukraine's supreme court today to see if it rules the elections illegal and orders a rerun. Both sides have said they would accept its ruling, although in this fevered situation such commitments cannot be trusted. There are hints that Russian leaders would also accept a rerun. This would be a welcome decision; but as much effort should go into thinking about formulae to allow power to be shared after an election as into the efforts to win it by both sides. Ukraine is so deeply divided, and the crisis has so exacerbated its cleavages, that this will probably be the only way to avoid the country splitting apart. That would be a tragedy for Ukrainians - and potentially a disaster for political stability and development in Europe.
Power-sharing mechanisms need urgent attention within Ukraine. This must be addressed at national level, where a winner takes all approach would only reinforce division, no matter how fair another election. It will also be necessary at regional level; these demands for autonomy could be channelled into a federal reform of political structures if the will is there. And basic cultural and linguistic rights must be recognised if national unity is to continue.
Equally urgent is the search for political means to assure Russia that democratic change in Ukraine will not undermine its long-term security interests, for example by ruling out NATO membership. Such an initiative comes best from the European Union, whose leadership has been straining to mediate on the basis of democratic rights and political security. Finding a way through this crisis is a fundamental challenge to its continental role.