This leadership crisis may prove entirely different to anything that has gone before, writes Frank Millar
David Trimble is in trouble. "So nothing new there then," you might think. Not unreasonably so, either. This is invariably the sanguine response of his most loyal fans as they watch the Ulster Unionist leader stumble from each heavyweight encounter, bloodied and battered but still the on-points victor. "He limps on," said one on Tuesday night in admiration and wonderment after Mr Trimble had survived the "no-confidence" challenge in his Upper Bann constituency association.
Yet increasingly the questions are being asked. To what end? At what cost to the party he leads by the narrowest of margins? And with what implications ultimately for the Belfast Agreement and the political process in Northern Ireland?
The fact that these questions are now exercising senior and influential pro-agreement unionists should serve notice on Mr Trimble, and the British and Irish governments, that this developing leadership crisis may prove of an entirely different nature to anything that has gone before.
No sensible commentator would yet write off the great survivor. Even his opponents acknowledge his formidable intellectual and political skills. Moreover, Mr Trimble enjoys a priceless asset which unionists should not lightly discount, namely the goodwill and regard of a powerful British Prime Minister still seemingly set for a third term.
Those plotting to force Mr Trimble out certainly cannot afford to omit Mr Blair from their calculations. If the rationale for deposing him is that a 54/46 split renders the Ulster Unionist Party dysfunctional - and that Mr Trimble cannot bring about greater unity - it is not apparent to Downing Street why any successor could hope to do better.
The personal relationships are clearly poisonous but "it's the policy, stupid" which has brought the UUP to the brink of implosion. If greater party unity is the prize proffered by those again canvassing a Reg Empey/Jeffrey Donaldson "dream-ticket" succession, then there would seem to be clear implications for the existing policy in relation to the Belfast Agreement, which Mr Blair insists is non-negotiable. For the bottom line of any unity pact, surely, would be an acknowledgment that the present state of UUP division spells future electoral ruin and that a pro-agreement margin of 54 per cent is an insufficient basis on which to manage the party.
Mr Blair's aides have difficulty getting their heads round any of this. For starters, they cannot believe the UUP would put itself through the torment of finally removing Mr Trimble to replace him with Sir Reg. And since Mr Donaldson cannot work with Mr Trimble, they don't understand why the Lagan Valley MP would prove any more amenable to Sir Reg who, after all, has been by Mr Trimble's side throughout the negotiation of the Belfast Agreement and the bitter five-year battle to preserve it.
Sources close to Mr Trimble think they have the answer. Acknowledging that the idea is again in play, one insider last night told The Irish Times: "The whole dream ticket is a fraud. Even if Reg did win a leadership contest the reality is that he would simply be lending a facade, while Donaldson was in charge with (Lord) Molyneaux pulling the strings behind the scenes."
Mr Trimble would regard such an outcome as calamitous for the UUP and, ultimately, for the Union. As the source put it: "We would be back to Jim's masterly inactivity and decline, only this time it would be the decline of the Union itself."
It is his unshakeable belief that it secured the Union with Britain and tied republicans into a partitionist settlement which explains Mr Trimble's continuing fidelity to the agreement. And he has made it clear that he will keep the faith for as long as he has an Ulster Unionist Council majority of one. Hence, today he will defy the growing chorus of criticism and doubt following his reversal in the High Court on Monday and ask his party officers to renew the disciplinary process in the expulsion of the dissident MPs: Mr Donaldson, the Rev Martin Smyth and Mr David Burnside.
Mr Trimble decided he had no choice once the three MPs resigned the party whip, and as of yesterday he remained convinced there could be no retreat without fatal consequences for his leadership. "If he backs off now he'll be gone in the autumn," said one authoritative source, accepting that it was now a case of "do or die" for Mr Trimble in the struggle to reassert his authority.
Downing Street is willing him to win this battle to "modernise" the UUP. In Dublin, too, there is renewed admiration for the embattled leader preparing once and for all to face down his "rejectionists".
However, the worrying news for both governments is that previously key Trimble allies have concluded this is a step too far for Mr Trimble and for an agreement currently crash-landed about their feet. The "dream-ticket" advocates openly acknowledge they have not resolved all the policy implications but insist the priority now is to find a policy to save the party. One leading light in the still behind-the-scenes moves to depose Mr Trimble asserts his own continuing commitment to the agreement, while insisting "David can't complete the project now".
The point of convergence, it seems, is a shared belief that Mr Trimble no longer has the credibility necessary to conclude any "acts of completion" deal with Sinn Féin and successfully commend it to the unionist electorate.
Mr Trimble is confident of at least a majority of one today, although he does not appear to be counting on the support of Sir Reg or the party's influential MEP, Mr Jim Nicholson. Most worrying for Mr Trimble, however, is the position of Lord Kilclooney (his former deputy leader, John Taylor), who has given the clearest signal that he believes the party will not vote to self-destruct. Lord Kilclooney has also made it clear he will not support Mr Trimble if the proposed International Monitoring Body (to monitor any acts of completion deal) involves Dublin in the affairs of the Stormont Assembly.
And it is not lost on Mr Donaldson that the only time he has managed to secure victory over Mr Trimble at the UUC was on the issue of the RUC - with John Taylor's support. Mr Trimble has listened carefully to the now-ennobled Mr Taylor over the years. To stop listening now might be the biggest mistake of Mr Trimble's political life.