Inside Politics:As a dramatic year in politics draws to a close, Bertie Ahern's personal finances are back in the spotlight for the fourth time in a little over 12 months.
One of the few certainties of the year ahead is that the issue will come back to dominate the headlines at regular intervals, although the political consequences of the Taoiseach's tribulations are less certain.
It is hard to see how there could be anything positive in the whole saga for the Government but, then again, Ahern won the general election in May despite the fact that the story about the large amounts of cash given to him in 1993 and 1994 when he was minister for finance broke nine months before the election and then returned to dominate the first half of the campaign.
Since his return to office the issue has already come back to haunt him twice and has coincided with a slide in his personal popularity and that of his party. Given the painstaking way the Mahon tribunal is going about its business he will probably have to give evidence again in the new year and some political fall-out is inevitable.
The dangerous thing for the Taoiseach and his Government is that the persistence of the tribunal issues comes against a backdrop of a slowing economy with tougher times ahead. It seems to be a feature of democratic politics that issues to do with "ethical standards" don't seem to matter all that much to a majority of voters when times are good, but they have the capacity to do real damage when times are bad and the electorate is looking for scapegoats.
The Taoiseach and his Fianna Fáil colleagues have certainly been rattled by the tribunal hearings of the last two days. In the course of his evidence Ahern accused the tribunal lawyers of trying to stitch him up and he used words like "hogwash," "balderdash" and "unbelievable" to describe the line of questioning being adopted towards him.
This was followed by highly critical statements about the tribunal from a succession of Fianna Fáil Ministers. Dermot Ahern described the Taoiseach's treatment at the tribunal as astounding, while Dick Roche said the way in which the tribunal conducted its work yesterday was unacceptable in a civilised society.
That in turn prompted a savage attack on the Taoiseach by Fine Gael's Senator Eugene Regan, who accused Fianna Fáil of a disgraceful assault on the working of the Mahon tribunal in an effort to distract attention from "the unbelievable stories" offered by Ahern to explain the complex series of lodgements to his bank accounts in 1994 and 1995.
The tribunal judges entered the fray yesterday, with Judge Alan Mahon rejecting the notion that there was an agenda against the Taoiseach. He maintained that Ahern was being treated in no way different to other witnesses, while his colleague Judge Gerarld Keyes was even more emphatic, saying that he wanted to reject suggestions of an agenda out of hand, adding that they were "offensive and unacceptable".
On a political level the controversy over the tribunal's handling of the Taoiseach's evidence served to obscure the actual evidence itself. The Minister for Defence, Willie O'Dea, yesterday virtually acknowledged that this was a clear strategy on the part of Fianna Fáil.
He said that when Ahern was previously before the tribunal the Opposition made hay and the media claimed that the silence of his Government colleagues meant that the Taoiseach was politically isolated. This time around Fianna Fáil is clearly intent on wading into the fray to defend Ahern against all comers.
The problem for Ahern is that the more the tribunal keeps picking away at his version of how close to €100,000 sloshed in and out of accounts under his control the more extraordinary does his explanation of events appear. While the tribunal may not be able to knock any holes in his story, the more it is put under the microscope the more doubts arise.
In political terms the refusal of the issue to go away raises two questions. The first is how long Ahern will continue to lead Fianna Fáil and serve as Taoiseach. The second is the impact the whole thing may have on the stability of the three-party coalition Government.
The leadership issue is bubbling away in the background, not primarily because of the tribunal but because Ahern opened it up himself in the aftermath of the election. If the continuing investigations of the tribunal damage Ahern's credibility, his party TDs will have to decide whether it makes sense for him to continue leading them for the next few years. It might make a lot of political logic for the next leader to take over sooner rather than later before the damage becomes too great.
On the other hand there is a very strong view in Fianna Fáil that the timing or the context for the change of leader should not be determined by the tribunal and certainly not by the media. The more experienced Fianna Fáil TDs remember how the premature political obituary of Charles Haughey in January 1983 actually saved his leadership and enabled him to continue on for another nine years. If Fianna Fáil TDs come to the conclusion that there is a witch-hunt against their leader they will almost certainly rally to Ahern's defence.
Then there is the question of the impact of the continuing controversy on the stability of the Government. So far the Greens have stuck resolutely to the line that they have no role in acting as the conscience of the Government and that Ahern's position is entirely a matter for Fianna Fáil. Whether that line will survive a protracted war of attrition remains to be seen, but the indications are that the Greens will stand by their man as long as their Fianna Fáil colleagues are prepared to do so.
In the final analysis Ahern is likely to be given the space to make up his mind about his future in his own time. From his own point of view, though, it is a pity that his record-breaking third term should be dominated by such a grubby episode.