ANALYSIS:TODAY'S EUROPEAN Union summit was originally expected to be a celebratory affair, with EU leaders able to put the final touches to the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty and bask in the glory of the Yes vote in the Irish referendum. Sweden, the current holder of the EU's rotating presidency, had hoped to announce the name of the first president of the European Council and a new EU foreign affairs chief to drive forward the EU's global ambitions, writes JAMIE SMYTH
But in a union of 27 states, best-laid plans often get sidetracked and the opposition of Eurosceptic Czech president Vaclav Klaus to the treaty means there will be plenty of tough talking before the politicians can pop any champagne corks.
The October “jobs summit” has now turned into a problem-solving exercise, with diplomats embroiled in a tricky drafting session aimed at carving an opt-out from part of the treaty to meet the Czech president’s concerns. In a last-ditch effort to either hold up the treaty or save face at home, Klaus has demanded an opt out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights, a Bill of rights that is made legally-binding via the treaty. He says the opt-out is aimed at shielding the Czech Republic from property claims from ethnic Germans expelled after the second World War, although most lawyers argue the charter could not be used to advance these claims.
Over dinner tonight EU leaders are expected to agree to provide the Czech Republic with this opt-out from the charter. Swedish diplomats will table a solution that follows closely the model of the “Irish guarantees”, which Taoiseach Brian Cowen was given in June. Under this scenario EU leaders will take a political decision to offer the opt-out. This political decision will later be enshrined in the EU treaties when the next country joins the union in 2011 or 2012.
The delay is unavoidable because all 27 member state parliaments have to ratify any changes made to the Lisbon treaty and no country is willing to reopen the Lisbon ratification process at this late stage.
All the signs in Brussels point to a deal being achieved on the second day of the summit. After all, there is the legal precedent provided by the agreement on the “Irish guarantees” on the right to life, education, family, tax and neutrality. But there are a few factors that could yet come to play when leaders sit down tonight to discuss the deal.
The main looming question is: can EU leaders trust Klaus to sign the treaty if they offer the opt-out? The Czech president, a friend of Libertas founder Declan Ganley, is a trenchant opponent of EU integration and has employed every possible tactic to kill the treaty. His allies in the Czech Republic have lodged two appeals against the treaty to the Czech constitutional court and he deeply angered EU leaders when he made his minute-to-midnight demand for an opt-out.
Earlier this month French president Nicolas Sarkozy described Klaus’s action as “unacceptable”. “Decision time is coming for him and it will not be without consequence,” he warned in an interview. French-Czech relations are fragile following Prague’s eccentric handling of the EU presidency earlier this year and cool heads will have to prevail for a deal to be done.
Slovakia has also raised concerns about providing a Czech opt-out, arguing that any deal for the Czechs should also be on offer to Bratislava. On the opposite side of the argument Hungary is anxious about any opt-out that refers to property rights because some of its citizens were expelled from Czechoslovakia after the war. The fear in Brussels is that discussing opt-outs relating to sensitive historical issues will raise emotions and block a deal.
Sweden is deliberately not tabling any formal talks on the personalities linked to the new EU jobs that are created by the Lisbon Treaty. Diplomats say this discussion is premature given that a deal on the opt-out has not been finalised and the Czech constitutional court has yet to rule on the latest appeal against the Lisbon Treaty. But informal talks between EU leaders are almost certain to take place during the bilateral meetings on the fringes of the summit.
British prime minister Gordon Brown will be pressing the candidacy of Tony Blair and Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Junker has already announced his interest in the job. But all eyes will focus on Mr Sarkozy and German chancellor Angela Merkel – if they act in concert they will probably determine who becomes the first president of the European Council. The decision will not be announced at the summit but private discussions between the two leaders over the next 48 hours will probably determine whether Blair, Junker or a possible compromise candidate such as Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende get the nod.
Cowen, who will meet his EU colleagues for the first time since the successful referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, should receive a warm welcome. His main task at the summit will be to network with European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso to ensure Ireland gets a good portfolio in the next EU executive. He isn’t expected to name an Irish candidate, although the bookies’ favourites remain Maire Geoghegan-Quinn and Pat Cox.
EU leaders will also discuss how much money they plan to give developing countries to cope with climate change ahead of the UN climate change summit in Copenhagen in December. Sweden wants the union to offer up to €50 billion a year by 2020. But Italy and Germany don’t want a figure published before the summit, while Poland wants an EU-wide agreement on how to share out the burden of these payments before setting a figure.
The talks on climate financing will be very tough. A failure to agree a concrete figure to offer developing states as part of a global agreement to curb emissions will raise questions about EU leadership in the area. But pledging hundreds of billions of euro of taxpayers’ money during a recession will not be an easy sell for most political leaders.
Jamie Smyth is European Correspondent