The British Conservative Party faces its sixth leadership election in 14 years, following the 90 to 75 no confidence vote in Mr Iain Duncan Smith by its Members of Parliament yesterday.
This vote, and the previous ones, are sure indicators of a party going through a crisis of political identity and facing a prolonged period of adjustment through and beyond the next general election, which, it is universally assumed, it will lose for the third time running. This was a relatively close vote, in which Mr Duncan Smith received significantly more votes from his parliamentary colleagues than when he was elected only two years ago. His support base in the party's general membership has been much less concerned than the MPs by his failure to develop charisma and leadership appeal; they were more impressed by his efforts to refocus the party's policies towards a more realistic and electable agenda.
Mr Duncan Smith's departure last night was dignified. But his efforts to hold on to the leadership over recent months backfired, convincing a majority of his parliamentary colleagues that he could not turn the party around in the next election. Mr Michael Howard has immediately become the favourite to succeed him, in a contest that will engage the party as a whole for at least the next month. The winner will lead the Tories in the next election, but almost certainly not in the following one.
It's not as if the Labour Party was not facing major difficulties in delivering on its policies and reproducing its credibility with the voters. The Iraq war and the David Kelly inquiry have helped to undermine its appeal. But all politics is relative. Without an effective and credible opposition role capable of capitalising on these difficulties, there is no sustained benefit for the Conservatives. There has been more public and media focus on their internecine struggles over a possible successor to Mr Duncan Smith than on their policy alternatives during this time. The Liberal Democrats have been more convincing opponents of Labour than the Tories, as shrewder Tory strategists realise. But there is no guarantee that yet another change of leadership will protect them against such a challenge.
The Conservatives face a major task over the next two elections if they are to benefit from a political cycle that will swing against Labour. Mr Blair has skilfully exploited the Conservatives' weakness, building on the failure to redefine their identity after the Thatcher years - notwithstanding Mr John Major's long transitional period in office after his victory in 1992. He failed to resolve the contradictions between the party's hard right and Eurosceptic wings, seen as increasingly out of touch with a changing British society, and those who set out to modernise the party and adapt it (which Mr Blair successfully did with Labour as opposition leader 10 years ago). Neither Mr William Hague nor Mr Duncan Smith managed to do this in their short terms, though Mr Duncan Smith did begin to refocus the party on the need for change.