There is growing scientific consensus on the reality of the threat posed by global warming. In the view of many reputable specialists, the ferocious storms of the past number of winters, which devastated large tracts of France and England and caused serious damage in this country, are clear evidence of the phenomenon. Yesterday, the Minister for the Environment, Mr Dempsey, said the situation was bad and becoming worse, with hurricanes and extensive flooding threatening communities from Central America to Europe and Asia. And he outlined a series of measures intended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in this country by the year 2010.
There will be pain for every sector of society, in terms of increased charges for non-renewable energy; a reduction in livestock numbers; stricter building regulations; more efficient industrial practices and a range of other measures. But Mr Dempsey insisted that the pain would be evenly shared and that agreement had been reached with the various sectors and with Government Departments on how targets would be met.
The main offenders are the agricultural sector, which produces almost one-third of our greenhouse emissions, and coal, oil and gas-burning power stations that generate a further 25 per cent. By contrast, transport systems, including cars, buses and trains, generated 14.3 per cent in 1998, with emissions from homes coming in at 10.5 per cent and industry at 7 per cent. If greenhouse targets are to be met, the current national herd will have to be cut by an estimated 5 per cent, according to Mr Dempsey. And the coal-burning power station at Moneypoint, which generates about 20 per cent of our electricity needs, will be mothballed or adapted to burn gas by 2008.
The release of Government plans coincided with a launch by Fine Gael of proposals to cut emissions through the conversion of Moneypoint; to provide special tax breaks for combined heat and power plants; to encourage the production of 10 per cent of electricity needs from renewable energy sources and to discriminate in favour of green products and services.
The Government is already well adrift of undertakings given at Kyoto in 1990 to limit an increase in the State's carbon emissions to 13 per cent by 2010. Rapid economic growth has already pushed emissions to 20 per cent above 1990 levels and, without remedial action, that excess is predicted to reach 37 per cent by the end of the decade. In view of that dismal record, it is understandable that Mr Dempsey would want to be armed with a definite strategy to cut pollution before he meets with his EU ministerial colleagues in Brussels, next Monday and Tuesday, to discuss a unified response to climate change.
There is no doubting the desire of the Minister for the Environment to reduce the production of greenhouse gases. Our contribution to global warming and our growing wealth has placed a high degree of responsibility on us. And the Government has now agreed a blueprint for de-coupling economic growth from growth in greenhouse gas emissions. But the vagueness of some elements of the plan is compounded by a Government commitment to participate in emissions trading - buying unused quotas of carbon emissions from other countries - which could undermine the establishment of strict limits, with penalties, for various Irish sectors. Some elements of this plan cannot take effect until common decisions are taken at EU level and others may run into sectoral resistance here at home. Ten years have been lost since Kyoto. The plan, such as it is, is welcome. But it is very late.