PRESIDENT NICOLAS Sarkozy is well aware of how centrally Ireland's decision to reject the Lisbon Treaty will affect France's six-month presidency of the European Union, which began this week.
It is bound to deflect and diminish several of the more high-profile plans he has had to project French priorities, whether on European defence, climate change, immigration or a new EU relationship with Mediterranean states. Nonetheless, identifiable progress on such concrete projects can and should make a real difference for all concerned.
The key issue will be Mr Sarkozy's capacity to deliver on the message of reconnecting European affairs to citizens' concerns set out at his inaugural press conference. Ireland is at the centre of that task. His handling of the consequent Lisbon ratification process will be a real test of his leadership abilities and sensitivity as an honest political broker among the other 26 member states - both small and large. It is not easy for any political leader to combine these characteristics. Mr Sarkozy's famous hyper-activity, impatience, along with his addiction to power and those who hold it, will make this a particular challenge for him. But his sense of strategic direction, liking for direct political contacts, and ability to compromise could bring him through the task successfully if he sees the need for it.
France's last EU presidency in 2000 under former president Jacques Chirac should be a warning of how not to proceed. Mr Chirac insisted on giving French national interests priority over the disinterested brokering role of EU president in negotiating the Nice Treaty. This is an inherent temptation for large states, which unlike smaller ones, have a stake in most EU policies. It tends to be reinforced by France's own political culture. France's rejection of the constitutional treaty by referendum in 2005 symbolised the loss of such a European mirror to reflect national priorities at the European level. Mr Sarkozy is determined to restore it by articulating a new and clearer mission of mutual advantage. That would certainly find favour elsewhere - and in Ireland too, as British foreign secretary David Miliband pointed out in a thoughtful speech yesterday.
Mr Sarkozy believes the Lisbon Treaty should not be renegotiated and that Ireland will have to vote again on it after being given certain clarifications and concessions. Next June's European Parliament elections impose a deadline on that. An additional complication is the accumulation of political and legal ratification problems this week in Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany. These are mostly opportunist political responses to Ireland's No, but any arrogant or insensitive response by the French could easily backfire.
The Government has won some time to analyse and reflect on the referendum result. So far its need for this space has been respected, including by the French. But nearly all the other member states support this timeline and approach and expect Irish proposals to resolve the problem in the autumn. That is the hard political fact of the matter. Mr Sarkozy's challenge is to rise to the task of easing this path.