Ireland's second referendum campaign on the Nice Treaty is effectively under way now that the Government has secured two declarations on military neutrality at the European Council in Seville this weekend. Tomorrow it will decide on whether the same or a different question should be put in the autumn.
It will publish the legislation on Thursday. The stage is set for a long and passionate debate engaging many more participants and much more energy than in last year's referendum which defeated the treaty. It certainly deserves to do so.
According to the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, this is the most important decision Ireland has to take about Europe over the 30 years of the State's EU membership. In Seville he spoke about the vital economic, political, social and moral interests involved. He warned that a State so heavily reliant on exports and foreign investment cannot afford to marginalise itself by voting No and reducing its influence in the EU mainstream, without incurring major costs. Multinational companies would be left "with no other alternative but to see where they should be" in the event of a second No vote. He underlined the huge pressure coming on the Common Agricultural Policy from Germany, which would need maximum capacity to maintain an alliance with France. For Ireland to block EU enlargement by voting against Nice again, would put these basic interests in jeopardy.
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The Government's core message is that the second referendum is not only about Nice but poses a deeper question of whether Ireland is effectively in or out of the EU. This foretells a bruising campaign. Mr Ahern denies it is scaremongering, but rather a prudent, vital and self-interested realism. He is right to make these points. But he is quite wrong to accuse opponents of the treaty of "whinging" when their arguments are exposed. Such rhetoric is likely to divert attention from his core message and take from the effectiveness of the vigorous rebuttals he says are necessary the second time around. The treaty's opponents already have an uphill task to convince voters that a No vote would not have the profound economic and political consequences identified by Mr Ahern.
Immigration and asylum dominated the main agenda at Seville. The summit could not reach agreement on aid sanctions against states which refuse to co-operate with the EU on immigration. But pressure for restrictions will continue to mount despite the EU's growing economic need for migrants and their willingness to work. The Spanish EU presidency has made substantial progress on the enlargement negotiations, ensuring concluding decisions can be made under the Danish presidency which succeeds it next month - and sharpening Ireland's autumn dilemma about Nice. Seville has also made important decisions about reforming the way these summits and the Council of Ministers conduct their business.