It is good news indeed to hear that the holes in the earth's ozone layer, which opened up over polar regions between the 1950s and the 1980s, will soon begin to shrink. Indeed they could close up completely over the next 50 years, if progress continues in tackling the problem. This demonstrates that preventative action taken by governments, based on scientific research and advice, can make a crucial difference in protecting the earth's environment. It should give heart to those who have lamented the failure to agree on the separate problem of global warming at the United Nations climate change conference in The Hague last month.
Ozone is a gas which plays a vital role in protecting humans, animals, marine life and plants from the sun's ultraviolet rays. Even at very low levels these rays cause sunburn, while cancer and cataracts are among their damaging effects at higher levels of exposure. The ozone layer was eroded principally by the release of destructive chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere, allowing the rays through. CFCs were widely used in post-War years in refrigerators, aerosol cans, air-conditioning equipment, computers and household appliances. They were banned by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. As a result, the European Union cut consumption from 300,000 tonnes to 4,300 in 1998. Over the same period, Japan eliminated their use altogether, Russia nearly so. But there was nearly a doubling in China to 51,000 tonnes. In recent years, their use in other industrial applications has also stabilised.
Scientists from the Stratosphere Processes and Their Role in Climate group, meeting in Buenos Aires, have concluded that if such action continues to be taken, the ozone layer could be completely restored by the mid-century. But its recovery could be delayed by decades if emissions of greenhouse gases are not checked. This is a separate scientific problem, caused mainly by burning fossil fuels that build up greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, which cause global warming. The climate change conference at The Hague broke down over the failure to agree methods of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases according to the timetable and amounts agreed in the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997.
A growing scientific consensus identifies a causal relationship here, with definite and discernible effects on the earth's climate. Given that this is so, it becomes imperative that efforts to reconvene the summit should continue urgently. This evidence from the ozone experience shows that determined action can change things for the better. Much depends on the United States' attitude, since that country is responsible for over a quarter of the earth's fossil fuel emissions. Given that its delegation could make so little progress with President Clinton still in office, one must wonder about the attitude should Mr George W. Bush become President. He is seen as close to the oil lobby and big business interests with little regard for environmental protection. It is precisely for these reasons that this evidence presented on the ozone layer should be taken seriously as a precedent for science-based decision-making in other environmental arenas.