The longer the Ukraine war drags on the more likely a global hunger crisis

The warning by the UN secretary general António Guterres that the war in Ukraine could lead to a global hunger crisis is a cause for serious concern. Even before Russia attacked its neighbour the world was facing unprecedented levels of hunger due to the combined effects of conflict, climate change and Covid-19. Add spiralling inflation and the disastrous war involving two of the world’s biggest food producers – there you have the ingredients for a hunger calamity of unprecedented proportions.

As the head of the World Food Programme (WFP) David Beasley puts it, the war against Ukraine has compounded catastrophe on top of catastrophe.

In terms of what this could mean in a world where 44 million people are teetering on the edge of famine, he reckons there is no precedent to this situation since the second World War.

Just as Europe has become overly dependent on Russia for its oil and gas, so too are dozens of countries with vulnerable populations dependent on Russia and Ukraine for their cereals. These two countries together account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies.

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Global wheat prices are now reaching record highs because of the impact of the war on shipments from the Black Sea region and the uncertainty surrounding sanctions on Russia.

“There’ll be repercussions around the world and far beyond these two countries,” says Friederike Greb, an economist with WFP. “With two such huge players in the grain markets, there’s the potential for massive collateral damage”.

It’s estimated that there are 14 million metric tonnes of wheat and 16 million metric tonnes of maize in these two countries now effectively cut off from global supply. The longer the war drags on, the more export stocks will be blocked.

Ukrainian fields lie largely untended, with farmers having left to defend the cities, and Ukrainian ports have been knocked out by Russian shelling and blockades.

Russian Black Sea ports remain open but shipments have been crippled by soaring insurance costs and massive war-risk premiums. Sanctions may be tightening the noose around Russia’s economy but they are hurting global trade too (sanctions haven’t generally applied to food and fertiliser but rules are changing rapidly).

Agricultural products

To complicate matters, Russia has introduced an export ban for hundreds of products, including grain, to neighbouring countries, and Ukraine has suspended the export of key agricultural products.

Europe, being a leading exporter of cereals, is not dependent on wheat from these two countries but it will not remain untouched. More than 80 per cent of Europe’s sunflower oil imports come from Ukraine, the world’s largest producer.

And a quarter of the key ingredients in fertiliser used in European food production come from Russia. Alternative sources can be sought but this will mean higher costs for farmers, lower crop yields and ,ultimately, higher costs for food.

“We’re not in a world food crisis quite yet,” says Josef Schmidhuber, deputy director of Markets and Trade at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. “But we are in a world wheat and fertiliser crisis. With energy prices rising in tandem with food prices, which are now at record levels, the biggest worry is food security in poor countries.”

European consumers will survive because they spend less of their household income on food than poor countries (Ireland is one of only eight countries in the world that spends less than 10 per cent of household income on food). But in poor countries such as Nigeria, where people spend more than half their income on food, even small price increases can push large numbers of people to the brink.

Most affected by the war in Ukraine and rising grain prices are likely to be import-dependent countries such as Lebanon, which in recent years has come to rely on Ukraine for 80 percent of its wheat supplies. Egypt, which imports 3 million metric tonnes of wheat per year from Ukraine and 8 million metric tonnes from Russia, is also very exposed.

In all some 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than 30 percent of their wheat imports.

Exporter

Ukraine is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter, accounting for about 10 per cent of the global market. Most of the wheat grown there is winter wheat which will be ready for harvesting this summer. But what if its farmers are away fighting or if all the fuel for their farm machinery has been diverted for the defence of their homeland?

Analysts have been comparing the current situation with that of 2008 when rising food prices led to civil unrest in some countries. However, today’s context is more complicated and more serious than a decade and a half ago. In addition to the worsening impact of climate change and the terrible toll of Covid-19 on livelihoods in poorer countries, there is an unprecedented number of hunger hotspots – Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria and Yemen – all of which depend on wheat.

These crises are sapping the resources of an overstretched humanitarian sector. WFP, the UN food assistance arm, has already been forced to cut rations to desperate people facing famine-like conditions in Yemen. Now, with Russia’s attack on Ukraine having displaced millions of people, the agency expects its immediate costs to increase by $29 million a month because of this conflict alone.

With food procurement costs rising and donors in the West channelling emergency funds to Ukraine and neighbouring countries, there is less money for people in forgotten war zones such as Mali and Burkina Faso.

Unless a speedy end is brought to Russia’s war against Ukraine, its fallout will continue to spread around the globe, bringing misery to those who are most at risk.

David Orr is a journalist based in France.He served as a spokesman for the UN World Food Programme for 10 years until 2020