THE GOVERNMENT has won some time to analyse and consider its response to the defeat of the Lisbon referendum at the European Council in Brussels, having convinced its partners of the great political difficulties involved.
That consideration applies as much to the overall future of the European Union as to Ireland's place within it. Pressures to resolve both issues will increase this year and next, because nearly all the other member states want to go ahead with Lisbon, not renegotiate it. If they do, Ireland will be faced with a grave choice between deciding to reverse last week's decision or being excluded from the developing EU.
Thus the respect shown for Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his team is conditional on them coming up with a viable proposal to guarantee Ireland's position and interests, broadly within the Lisbon Treaty framework. Analysis of the polling by the European Commission published yesterday shows most No voters thought the treaty could be renegotiated and were not aware of how difficult this would be, nor of the potential political consequences of Ireland being isolated in seeking a renegotiation nobody else might want. That lack of awareness is the most serious indictment of the Yes campaign, which both sides correctly thought much the less effective. Other polling and analysis reveals how voters lost trust in the advice of political leaders on this subject and the huge importance of restoring that credibility for our political system's overall health.
Between now and the end of the year objective circumstances are likely to demonstrate what the Yes campaign proved unable to communicate. That could encourage one possible shift of view among voters as they come to terms with the expected costs, political and economic, of increased isolation. Several other, more positive, approaches are also possible in finding assurances and guarantees for Ireland's difficulties with the treaty.
For instance, a declaration drafted by Ireland and endorsed by all the other member states could reiterate assurances about national policies on neutrality, taxation or abortion not being affected by the treaty. It could include opt-outs from some other provisions. And it could well change the treaty's plan to reduce the number of commissioners by restoring national rights to retain them, since this could be done without renegotiations.
To be convincing, any such plan would also have to acknowledge the democratic gulf that has opened up between political leaders and citizens throughout the EU and put forward credible plans for reconnecting them. Ireland's experience in this respect is not at all isolated. A great deal can be done to make politics at European and national levels more accessible, accountable and open - all the more so if Lisbon does indeed open the way to more effective decision-making on issues like Europe's world role, climate change, energy security and social protection, as EU governments insist it does.
This is a great national challenge. It requires the Government to engage fully with citizens, Opposition parties and opponents of the treaty as it is taken on.