Irish history has a habit of throwing up disasters just at the point when it seems that things are falling into place. Indeed, the history of the Troubles since the late 1960s has witnessed too many instances in which high hopes have been shattered through some unfortunate convergence of events or some fatal misjudgement. Only the most dewy-eyed optimists, therefore, will be certain that there is the prospect of a deal in what has been agreed over the past 48 hours at Hillsborough Castle. But it seems from what has been said by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern and the Prime Minister, Mr Blair, that the makings of a settlement may exist in the impasse over decommissioning and that the institutions provided for under the Belfast Agreement could be brought into operation within a matter of weeks.
The talks have been adjourned until April 13th. Mr Blair, with more than a touch of reductionism, described the break as "a short pause for reflection". The hope must be that when the parties reassemble in a fortnight they will have finessed their approach to the proposed deal which was put together in broad shape at Hillsborough. Ministers would be nominated to a "shadow" executive. A month later, there would be a day of reconciliation and a quantity of weaponry would be put "beyond use". Also, "around that time" the executive would move from its shadow-phase and take on substantive form, with Sinn Fein Ministers taking two seats at the Cabinet table. It is a clever formula, amounting to what some negotiators have described as "simultaneous blinking" by both unionists and republicans.
The concept of putting weapons "beyond use" would bring the role of General John de Chastelain centre-stage. He and his officers would have to validate the process to the satisfaction of all parties while avoiding any semblance of a surrender by the paramilitaries. It would be a difficult task but not an impossible one provided the various parties are prepared to be imaginative in their thinking and respectful of General de Chastelain's professional judgment. Guns do not necessarily have to be destroyed to be "beyond use". The removal of their firing mechanisms to a place of supervised safety, for example, would render them harmless. Explosives without detonation devices are no threat. There are many possibilities.
The sequence of events at Hillsborough since the beginning of the week is still unfolding. But if a settlement emerges when the parties reassemble, there will have to be movement by the republicans from their earlier "not-a-round-not-an-ounce" stance. Mr Trimble will also have to persuade his party to further flexibility in accepting that there can be a shadow-executive before any guns are put "beyond use". The determination of the two heads of government not to allow the process to stall has been essential in maintaining momentum and in securing what might be described as a new high-point of understanding. Particular credit must go to Mr Ahern who insisted that the talks resume and be brought forward at a point when it appeared that no progress could be made. This week at Hillsborough has been an exposition of politics as the art of the possible.