Stephen Collins: What date will Enda Kenny pick for the general election?

Politicians of all parties are doing their best to relax in the dog days of August in advance of the frenetic run-in to the general election, but speculation about the date of that election just won’t go away.

Government chief whip Paul Kehoe jangled a few nerves when he said in an interview in the Irish Examiner during the week there was a 30 per cent chance the election would take place in November.

Since the Eurostat announcement on Irish Water and a recent run of dismal opinion polls for the Coalition parties, the general assumption across the political spectrum is the election will take place in spring of next year and not before.

The Banking Inquiry’s request for more time means it is unlikely to report before Christmas. That has strengthened the view the election will take place in 2016 but a 30 per cent chance of a November election cannot be ignored.

When Enda Kenny has said on a number of occasions the election will not take place next April, these comments have been taken with a grain of salt – but in theory he could go until April 9th, 2016.

Section 33 of the Electoral Act of 1992 provides that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting. The current Dáil first met on March 9th, 2011, which means that it cannot continue beyond March 8th next.

Section 96 of the Electoral Act provides that the election shall be held not earlier than 18 working days and not later than 25 working days after the issuing of the writs. On that basis, the election would have to be held between April 1st and 9th if the Dáil runs to the final day of its term.

No one in politics believes that will happen for a variety of reasons. One is that Easter is very early next year, on Sunday, March 27th, and would come slap bang in the middle of the election campaign.

Centenary commemorations

Another factor is that the centenary commemorations of the 1916 Rising would also take place during the campaign. While some people in Government might like the idea of presiding over the commemorations, the more general view is the party likely to benefit most from an election in the midst of the ceremonies would be Sinn Féin.

It would be quite extraordinary for a Government to run to its last possible day. This has never happened in the history of the State. Governments have regularly gone to the country well short of five years – and even when they have served a full five-year term, it has usually been since the date of the previous election.

So if an election in April is very unlikely because of Easter and the 1916 commemorations, an election date in March is limited by the tradition that the Taoiseach and Ministers travel to the four corners of the globe on St Patrick’s Day.

Given that the optimum timing for an election next year will come after the end of January when people have received either tax reductions or increased welfare benefits, the window of opportunity for an election would appear to be in late February or early March.

One of the disadvantages of carrying on till close to the end is that the Coalition parties leave themselves at the mercy of unexpected events. The greatest electoral tactician in Irish history, Éamon de Valera, regularly sprung snap elections to avoid that trap and wrong foot his opponents. That is why a November election in the immediate aftermath of the autumn budget is not entirely out of the question.

The consensus at present is for a spring election and that has different implications for different parties. The problem for the Coalition is that everybody in politics knows the parameters surrounding the election date, and the Opposition parties and Independents will be primed to launch all-out attacks on the Government in the new year.

This happened during the fixed-date European and local elections last year, and both Fine Gael and Labour lost support at a steady rate as the Opposition and the media pounded their record during the campaign. With a winter hospital health crisis almost an inevitability, the Coalition could be on the defensive for a start regardless of budget goodies.

A spring election will also give more time for the new parties such as Renua and the Social Democrats and for the variety of left-wing parties and Independent groups to get candidates and policies in order, while the big Opposition parties, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, will be fully prepared from the off.

Bad timing

In the past, Fine Gael/Labour coalitions have found it impossible to pick an election date that brought them back to power for a second successive term. In 1997, John Bruton was persuaded to go in May when he could have waited until November when the economy was in better shape and Fianna Fáil in worse shape after the McCracken tribunal reported. In 1987, Garret FitzGerald went in February when he could have gone on until November but he didn't have much choice as his coalition fell apart.

A decade earlier, in 1977, Liam Cosgrave went too early although a win was never a realistic possibility. That government famously commissioned an opinion poll which showed it heading for disaster but only after it had called the election.

Kenny won’t make that mistake and will be watching the polls closely as his Government heads down the final straight. It will be one of the most difficult calls of his political career.