Stephen Collins: Varadkar’s future may hang on Micheál Martin

Leo Varadkar’s offer to Micheál Martin of a deal to keep the current political arrangements in place until 2020 is a calculated political manoeuvre which could just as easily lead to an election in the autumn as one in two years’ time.

The subtext of Varadkar's offer is that if Fianna Fáil is not prepared to guarantee political stability for another two years then all bets are off and an election is a real possibility.

Senior Fianna Fáil politicians are angry at what they regard as an attempt to force their hand before the current confidence-and-supply arrangement runs out in the autumn but it is just the latest move in the continuing arm wrestle for political advantage between the two parties in the dying months of their current deal.

“It’s as simple as this,” remarked one vastly experienced TD. “Up until the budget, Leo can decide if and when to call an election. Once the budget is passed by the Dáil, the decision will be Micheál’s.”

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Varadkar’s offer to continue the current arrangement for another two years is a clear attempt to avoid handing the initiative to Fianna Fáil over the timing of the next general election.

The question for Martin is whether he can agree to accept that constraint on his own room for manoeuvre. If he can’t, then the clear implication is that the Government will only survive for as long as its doing so remains in the interests of the main Opposition party.

Held hostage

Some Fine Gael figures have made no secret of the fact that they favour an early election in order to avoid being held hostage by Fianna Fáil. They remember with particular bitterness the way Frances Fitzgerald was forced from office last November for no apparent reason other than Fianna Fáil threatening to vote no confidence in her.

Fianna Fáil took that approach to avoid being outmanoeuvred by Sinn Féin – and so with defeat staring them in the face, the Government faced the choice of sacrificing Fitzgerald or calling a Christmas election. In the event, public outrage at the prospect of a Christmas election meant the Tánaiste had to go, but her former ministerial colleagues are acutely aware that the same thing will inevitably happen again once the confidence-and-supply agreement ends.

If Martin refuses to be stampeded into a deal then Varadkar will have a big decision to make on which his entire political future will hang. Does he call the Fianna Fáil bluff and go for an election in the autumn or wait indefinitely in the hope that his continuing strength in the opinion polls will deter his opponents from bringing him down?

If Martin refuses to be stampeded into a deal then Varadkar will have a big decision to make

It’s a difficult choice to which there is no obvious solution. If he calls an election, Fine Gael could be out of power even if the party does well. One possible scenario is that Fine Gael could gain seats but Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin would still have enough between them to form a government. Martin has been consistent in his rejection of coalition with Sinn Féin but could find his leadership under threat from impatient colleagues if that option becomes available.

In that scenario, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin would also have the numbers to form a coalition but Varadkar could find his own leadership in danger if he tries to drag an unwilling party behind him into such a deal.

Two-year extension

The next election will pose enormous risks for Varadkar whatever way the result turns out and that is why a two-year extension of the current deal represents an attractive option for him.

It could also be the most attractive option for Martin. He has one more shot at being taoiseach, but as long as Fine Gael remains up to 10 points ahead of Fianna Fáil in the opinion polls it makes no sense to precipitate an election. What the situation will be like in two years’ time is impossible to judge, but there is a good chance that it will be better for Fianna Fáil than it is now as the natural process of attrition takes its toll on the Government.

Martin has one more shot at being taoiseach, but it currently doesn't make sense to precipitate an election

Martin will naturally be reluctant to be seen to bow to a clever tactic by Varadkar and may well make a counter offer, possibly one that would guarantee one more budget through the Dáil.

Then again he could come to the conclusion that Varadkar is bluffing and will not have the nerve to call an autumn election or that, even if he does, such a move will boomerang on the Government and prompt a swing to Fianna Fáil.

Both leaders have a lot to gain and even more to lose depending on how they handle the current standoff. Each of them will be anxious to foster the perception that they are acting in the national interest rather than for personal or party advantage.

With Brexit looming closer by the day, there is an argument that political stability is the paramount consideration. But given the precarious nature of the Government’s position in the Dáil that still leaves open the question about the best way to deliver that objective.