A range of people can claim credit for abortion referendum landslide but the politician who deserves it most is Leo Varadkar. The outcome was a vindication of the strategy and tactics he adopted when he became Taoiseach last June and pledged to hold a referendum within 12 months.
While he was criticised by some Yes campaigners for not adopting a more aggressive approach, the end result proves he has his finger on the pulse of middle Ireland. Voters are rarely impressed by politicians who hector them. Quiet persuasion is often more effective and it certainly was in this case.
Unlike the zealots on both sides, most Irish people have mixed views on abortion. By refusing to take a dogmatic line Varadkar persuaded many people to follow his own trajectory from opposition to abortion when he entered politics in 2008 to support for its availability now.
Varadkar's tone all the way through reflected the views of the middle ground rather than the righteous certitude exemplified by the campaigners celebrating in Dublin Castle
Following the Citizens’ Assembly recommendations Varadkar came to the conclusion that dealing with hard cases only would cause more problems than it solved and he leaned towards unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks, which is the European norm.
He didn’t broadcast his views widely in advance of the Oireachtas committee’s deliberations last autumn, but when that committee produced a report that tallied with his own views, he had what he needed to bring his Cabinet colleagues along with him.
Serious reservations
Some of them had serious reservations about unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks but Minister for Health Simon Harris was on board from the beginning and brought a lot of energy to the campaign.
Varadkar gave the impression of wobbling early on when he said publicly that he understood why people might have reservations about unrestricted abortion up to 12 weeks.
While some regarded this as undermining the repeal campaign, the opposite was the case. Varadkar’s tone of respect for those of opposing views encouraged many wavering voters to follow his lead.
It began with his parliamentary party where many who had serious reservations about abortion concluded that there was no other option in the changed reality which had been presented to the Oireachtas committee.
Varadkar’s tone all the way through reflected the views of the middle ground rather than the righteous certitude exemplified by the campaigners celebrating in Dublin Castle at the weekend.
The landslide has undoubtedly strengthened Varadkar’s hand in advance of general election, which most politicians believe is inevitable at some stage over the next 12 months.
Party’s prospects
While there is no guarantee that it will translate into increased support for Fine Gael, as the experience of Labour Party after the marriage equality referendum goes to show, it certainly won’t do any harm to the party’s prospects.
On the other side of the political fence Micheál Martin’s decision to back the Government’s approach at an early stage has saved his party from being typecast as the voice of old Ireland. In tandem with his health spokesman Billy Kelleher, Martin took an unequivocal line which went against the opinions of the bulk of his parliamentary party.
One of the early signs last week that a landslide was in the offing was the sight of a couple of anti-abortion Fianna Fáil TDs jumping ship to back Martin after experiencing the mood on the doorsteps.
Still, in spite of Martin’s courageous stand, the fact that the majority of the Fianna Fáil’s parliamentary party remained on the No side has the potential to create divisions in the months ahead.
The Labour Party has come out of the referendum on a high. Labour was the only mainstream party in the Dáil to oppose the Eighth Amendment in 1983 and it has been consistent ever since.
Battle for survival
Whether there will be any political payback for that may be doubtful. In the past the party’s liberal stance on social issues has yielded few dividends on general election day. Still, it should help in the battle for survival it now faces.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald stands to benefit from the prominent role she took in the Yes campaign. While two of her TDs were active No campaigners she identified the party with the direction Irish society is going and that will certainly do no harm to her ambitions to take Sinn Féin into government for the first time.
The decisive nature of the referendum result means that the legislation to give effect to the decision is unlikely to turn into a bitter rerun of the campaign.
Voters were under no illusions about what kind of legislation a Yes vote would entail and there is simply no appetite for a filibuster on the legislation by TDs opposed to the measure.
TDs from both camps are perfectly entitled to scrutinise the legislation in some detail but as long as it conforms to the principles set out during the campaign there is little room for argument about its merits.
Harris wants to get the legislation to give effect to the result into the Dáil before the summer recess. That may be a bit ambitious, but with all-party support it should be feasible to get it on the statute books by early autumn.