The latest breach of trust by the British government over the Northern Ireland protocol has the potential to destroy the trade deal with the EU agreed over the Christmas holidays after long and tortuous negotiations. The collapse of the deal would have serious consequences on both sides of the Border but the biggest loser of all will be the UK itself.
It should be remembered that the deal has yet to be ratified by the European Parliament, which is due to formally vote on it at the end of this month. The casual breaking of the protocol could well prompt the parliament to reject the deal in its entirety or, at the very least, to defer ratification. In the meantime the EU Commission will investigate legal remedies.
If the deal does fall apart, Boris Johnson and his government will have to contend with the imposition of tariffs on trade with its biggest market. Given the disruption that has already occurred in EU-UK trade over compliance with regulations, the introduction of tariffs has the potential to create chaos.
The Covid-19 pandemic may have masked the impact of Brexit as far as the British public is concerned, but the collapse of the trade deal would put it back centre stage and the focus back on Johnson’s erratic and often incompetent performance since taking office. On the basis of Britain’s behaviour over the past 18 months, the latest move may be just another bout of playacting, designed to appease the right wing of the Conservative Party and its allies in the Democratic Unionist Party, but it has the potential to go horribly wrong.
At the very least it will raise doubts once again about whether the EU, or any states around the globe for that matter, can trust a government led by Johnson to honour treaty obligations. The damaging implications for his global Britain campaign are obvious, particularly in the light of US president Joe Biden’s commitment to protecting the Belfast Agreement.
Border controls
The implications for Ireland cannot be underestimated. If the EU-UK trade deal falls apart, the question will then arise about how the single market can be protected in the absence of border controls on this island. There are no easy answers to that question.
The collapse of the trade deal would put the focus back on Johnson's erratic and often incompetent performance
Former British prime minister Tony Blair summed up the position neatly in a recent interview with The Irish Times: “It’s not possible for Europe to maintain the integrity of the single market and customs union and for Britain to exit the single market and customs union and for Northern Ireland to stay with an open border with the South – those three things cannot be resolved compatibly unless you have a special arrangement for Northern Ireland. So you could scrap the protocol but you’d just have to find another protocol.”
The practical issues about the impact of the protocol on everyday life in Northern Ireland cannot be ignored but, by all accounts, the fallout has been exaggerated for political purposes. While some businesses have certainly had difficulties with the new arrangements, there have not been shortages of vital foodstuffs on the shelves on supermarkets in the North. In any case, 60 per cent of the trade between Britain and Northern Ireland comes through the port of Dublin.
The bottom line is that the protocol is a political problem and one that the DUP is intent on whipping up for it own perceived advantage. The party has every right to feel betrayed by Johnson but it appears intent on going down yet another cul de sac in demanding that the protocol be abolished instead of devising a more forward-looking policy. The sinister threats from loyalist paramilitaries have added to the air of tension in the North.
Treatment of unionists
Johnson is not the first British prime minister who has had to deal with unionist politicians who felt they had been stabbed in the back. In 1985, Margaret Thatcher had to cope with a much more volatile situation in which all of unionism felt betrayed. Characteristically, she refused to budge and stuck by the Anglo Irish Agreement negotiated with Garret FitzGerald, despite her own reservations about it.
A little over a decade earlier, Harold Wilson did the opposite and abandoned the Sunningdale Agreement in the face of unionist pressure and the Ulster Workers’ Council strike. Johnson is clearly no Thatcher and might well be inclined to follow the Wilson example. The big difference between 1974 and now is that he will face negative consequences for the entire UK if the trade deal with the EU collapses as a result of his government’s action.
The sinister threats from loyalist paramilitaries have added to the air of tension in the North
One miscalculation the British may have made is that the clear desire of the Irish Government to find a way of simplifying the operation of the protocol might have led to tacit acceptance of the unilateral move to change how it is implemented. Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney quickly scotched that, responding to the move by saying the “British government is essentially breaking the protocol” and commitments it made only a few weeks ago. The Government in Dublin has no choice but to abide by the EU position and defend the integrity of the single market.