Stephen Collins: inconclusive result appears the most likely outcome

The Taoiseach has finally brought down the curtain on the 31st Dáil after what was probably the longest ever run-in to a general election.

The terseness of Enda Kenny's announcement in the Dáil yesterday was the only surprise before he bolted out of the chamber and up to Áras an Uachtaráin to ask President Michael D Higgins to dissolve the Dáil.

The battles lines have been drawn since frenzied speculation about a November election swept Leinster House in the early autumn. Only time will tell whether Kenny made the right call to pull back from going to the country at that stage and holding off until the spring.

The atmosphere at the start of this campaign is in stark contrast to the one surrounding the 2011 election. At that stage, the country was in a perilous state, with shattered public finances and broken banks threatening to bankrupt the State for the foreseeable future.

The outlook now could not be more different. Ireland's has the fastest growing economy in the European Union; the budget is back in balance; more than 230,000 new jobs have been created, and most people are finally beginning to feel the recovery in their pockets.

The question is: will the Coalition parties reap political reward for the economic recovery, or will voters express their annoyance at the impact of the tough decisions they have had to endure over the past five years by voting for Opposition parties or Independents.

The campaign itself will determine which argument will prove more persuasive with the voters – and, at this stage, the outcome appears to be wide open.

The tactics of both sides are already clear. Fine Gael and Labour are staking their claim for re-election on the economic recovery and placing huge emphasis on the need for political stability to ensure that it continues.

Austerity’s impact

By contrast, the Opposition will focus on the social impact of “austerity” while arguing that the Coalition has failed in its ambition to radically transform the health service and introduce the sweeping political reform they promised in the heady days of the last election campaign.

“Stability versus chaos,” is how the Government parties would prefer to frame the decision facing the people. “A fairer way of sharing the fruits of the recovery,” probably summarises the approach of all the Opposition parties and groups, although they will have very different suggestions for how that can be achieved.

Fine Gael and Labour entered the last election in stiff competition to see which of them could make the biggest gains at the expense of Fianna Fáil. While it was widely expected that the two parties would go into government afterwards, they took lumps out of each other during the campaign.

The Labour advertisement towards the end, warning about the draconian measures a majority Fine Gael government would implement, probably worked to rein in the bigger party, even if came back to haunt Labour later.

This time around, the mood at the outset is very different. The two parties are offering themselves to the people for re-election as a government. They will differ on a number of policy options, but are basically promising a continuation of the current budgetary strategy with relief for taxpayers as the public finances continue to improve.

Kenny is seeking to do something that no Fine Gael leader before him has managed – win a second successive term in office. That will require Fine Gael to take about 60 seats and Labour more than 15.

This is a tall order that will test the nerves of both parties as the campaign progresses, particularly if it appears the targets are unattainable. If Labour looks like it is being squeezed as the campaign enters its final week, the party may feel the need to launch its own counter-measures to avoid being swamped.

A number of Labour figures have already pointed to Michael McDowell’s 2002 climb up a Ranelagh lamppost with a poster declaring “One-Party Government? NO thanks” at a stage in the campaign when it looked as if the Progressive Democrats might be swept into irrelevance by an overall majority for Fianna Fáil.

At this stage, it does not appear that Fine Gael will be anywhere near an overall majority and will be doing well to break the 60-seat barrier. The effort to achieve that target, though, could spark rows with Labour when the going gets really tough.

Competition in every constituency, which is a feature of our proportional representation system, means that Fine Gael and Labour candidates will inevitably be at each other’s throats as the campaign nears the end.

The problem both Coalition parties face is that their core message is stability and continuity to keep the recovery going. Too much friction and that message could fray alarmingly.

Labour will need to get a strong public service vote to make up for the inevitable losses in its old working class base, and that is where it could usefully point up differences of emphasis with Fine Gael.

The relative strengths of the two parties will be all-important both in terms of policy and personnel, if they have the numbers to form another administration.

If Labour suffers too much and comes back with only 10 seats or so, there could be a big argument in the party about going back into government – even if the two parties have the numbers between them.

A special delegate conference will be required to endorse participation in another coalition, and that could prove to be a stormy affair if the result is really bad. For the moment, though, it is all steam ahead and Labour remains confident that it can hold up to 20 seats.

Catastrophic loss

There are as many imponderables about the performance of the Opposition as there are about the Government parties.

The outcome of the election will be vital for the future of Fianna Fáil. The party suffered a catastrophic loss at the last election, but under the leadership of Micheál Martin, it gradually adjusted to the new reality.

The party took great heart out of its local election performance in 2014, when it won 25 per cent of the vote and returned to its traditional position as the biggest party in local government. Since then, however, instead of continuing to move up, it has slipped back in the opinion polls.

The challenge facing Fianna Fáil during the campaign is to repeat the local elections trend and gain the few percentage points required to make it an important force in the next Dáil.

In the last election the party’s image was so toxic it won considerably fewer seats than its first preference share of the vote warranted. If it has become more transfer-friendly, and recent byelections suggest it has, then it should have a realistic chance of getting close to the 40 seats it is aiming for.

Over the past five years, Sinn Féin has been in competition with Fianna Fáil to lead the Opposition, and the two parties have swapped positions in opinion polls over the past few years. This time around, Sinn Féin is certain to make gains. The only question is how many.

The party has come up with more detailed economic policies than in the past and argues that it is more responsible than Fine Gael in how it intends to distribute the fruits of the recovery available in the so called “fiscal space”.

Sinn Féin hopes to break through the 30-seat barrier; if it can manage that, it could have much more influence in the 32nd Dáil than is anticipated.

Stiff competition

Gains are also likely for the hard-left AAA-PBP grouping, who have been such vocal opponents of the water charges. They had notable byelection successes in the lifetime of the outgoing Dáil, but in the election will face stiff competition from a range of Independents and other smaller parties, such as the Social Democrats and Renua

Ireland

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Renua hopes to gain traction during the campaign. The party led by Lucinda Creighton has not made a big impact in the opinion polls, but recent focus group research commissioned by The Irish Times indicates it may have an appeal for younger voters.

Independents in general have an appeal for voters of all ages in every part of the country and pose a real threat to the major parties. All the indications are that there will be more Independents after the election than in any Dáil since the foundation of the State. The impact that will have on the formation of a government is one of the huge imponderables.

Bertie Ahern has forecast that the election on February 26th will be followed by another one later this year. The former taoiseach could well be proved right – at this stage an inconclusive result appears the most likely outcome.