Stephen Collins: Government possible if parties engage in grown-up politics

The outline of a potential government is tentatively emerging from the fog of the general election result. Whether it will be strong enough to survive in the harsh glare of the political spotlight is the real question.

With Fianna Fáil resolutely refusing to join a coalition with Fine Gael, the only option is a minority government. Both parties are far off the numbers required to put a government in place but Fine Gael is that bit closer and there is a growing acceptance that it is in a better position to get something off the ground.

The exploratory discussions of the past week indicate that a Fine Gael-led government including a variety of Independents and smaller parties is a real possibility. It would be based on an agreed programme, with cabinet seats and junior ministerial positions for all the participating entities.

The problem is that such a government would still be well short of a majority. It would probably need a positive send-off from the Labour Party in the initial stages to make Enda Kenny taoiseach. And it would certainly require a benign neutrality from Fianna Fáil if it is to survive in the longer term.

There is no guarantee that either of these will happen. In their absence, it is difficult to see how a government can be formed. The only alternative is another general election before the summer, a threat that is concentrating minds on all sides.

The talks in which both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil engaged with Independents over the past week seem to have clarified matters to some extent.

FF-led government

Before the 32nd Dáil met for the first time on March 9th, there was a belief in some quarters of Fianna Fáil that the party could actually lead the next government. In a first step towards achieving that goal, a determined effort was made to mobilise more support for Micheál Martin than Kenny in the vote for taoiseach.

That did not materialise, and since then there has been a dawning realisation that a Fianna Fáil-led government is highly unlikely. The announcement by the Social Democrats that they will not support either of the big parties came as a blow to Fianna Fáil, who had entertained high hopes of winning them over.

Another election is the only outcome if everybody else adopts the same attitude as the Social Democrats and refuses to take responsibility for government formation. However, the signs are that a number of other groups are more serious about engaging in grown-up politics.

The Green Party has said it is willing to participate in government formation if some of its policy priorities are accepted, and it has engaged constructively with both big parties. So have a group of five like-minded rural Independents and the three rural members of the Independent Alliance.

Simon Coveney, who led the Fine Gael delegation, took the positive step of meeting the rural Independents in Athlone for wide-ranging discussions about developing a package of measures from rural Ireland, as distinct from attempts to buy off the Independents with individual constituency inducements.

Afterwards the Independents were complimentary about the seriousness of Coveney’s approach. Much more needs to be done to convince them to take the plunge and join a Fine Gael-led government, but it was an encouraging start.

Galway TD Noel Grealish, one of the key Independents involved, identified the main obstacle to a minority government led by either of the big parties: the requirement for some kind of commitment from whichever of the large parties stays out of government.

The numbers are stark. Fine Gael is sure of its own 50 votes, or 51 if the public commitment by Tipperary TD Michael Lowry is taken into account. The Green Party has two and the rural Independents have five. If the three rural members of the Independent Alliance are included, that brings the number up to 61.

A few more Independents, who have already talked to Fine Gael, would probably join up if the movement looks like gaining traction. But that still leaves a minority government with about 65 seats or so, a good deal short of the 79 needed for a majority.

Such an administration could only function if Fianna Fáil agreed not to bring it down on a budget or a confidence motion for a specified period. Creating the conditions for that kind of understanding will be an essential part of the process of government formation.

Much will depend on the kind of programme for government that emerges. Fine Gael is devising a plan designed not only to win over Independents and smaller parties, but to impress as many Dáil deputies as possible about the seriousness of its intent.

They couldn’t refuse

Back in 1992, when

Albert Reynolds

emerged from a disastrous election, a government with Labour was pulled from the jaws of defeat on the basis of a document devised by

Martin Mansergh

. He trawled through the Labour Party’s election manifesto and put together a programme that his potential coalition partners simply could not refuse.

It was one thing to persuade a potential coalition partner of the value of a programme for government. But persuading the main opposition party to buy into one, even for a limited period, is an altogether more difficult proposition.

The survival of a minority government will require a new way of doing politics. The position was neatly summed up by one of the TDs involved in negotiations over the past few weeks: “This could be one of the most exciting things to happen in Irish politics for a long time, or it could turn into a disaster.”

Only time will tell which it is to be.