Stephen Collins: Choice may now be support from Independents or new election

As Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil continue their contortions to try and get another party to join them in a coalition, it is worth recalling that some of the most dynamic and successful administrations in the history of the State have been minority governments propped up by Independents.

The outstanding example of this is the Fianna Fáil minority government led by Seán Lemass which took office in 1961. It didn’t simply survive for the following four years, it oversaw the change from the narrow protectionist regime that regulated the Irish economy for the previous 30 years to the world of free trade and foreign investment that created the basis for the successful modern economy we have today.

In his first election as Fianna Fáil leader in the autumn of 1961, Lemass came up short of an overall majority, winning 70 seats in the 144-member Dáil. He was elected taoiseach with the support of two Independents, Frank Sherwin and Jim Carroll, and had the support of two others – Joe Sheridan and Joe Lenehan – for the rest of the government’s life.

In his second and final election as taoiseach, Lemass again failed to win an overall majority but this time he was just one seat short. He continued to receive support from Independents and he was never threatened with defeat in the Dáil. Lemass did not do any formal deals with Independents but they did have privileged access to ministers and government departments on behalf of their constituents.

Food for thought – An Irishwoman’s Diary on treats to savour

---

The Irish Times view on the crisis in Yemen: Acutely vulnerable

---

David McWilliams: Health crisis has now become a wealth crisis

---

Diarmaid Ferriter: Let’s not go back to economics as usual

---

In more recent times, Bertie Ahern was elected taoiseach in 1997 for the first of his three terms with the support of three Independents as his Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition was three short of an overall majority. That government, which many commentators expected to be short-lived, lasted five years and was never threatened with a Dáil defeat. Special arrangements were made to keep four Independents led by Jackie Healy-Rae on side for the duration of the government. Declan Ingolsby, a civil servant in the taoiseach’s department, was given responsibility for dealing with their concerns.

Public finances

A less happy outcome for a minority government which depended on the support of Independents was the experience of Garret FitzGerald and his first Fine Gael/Labour coalition which took office in June 1981 with the support of Independents. That government came crashing down in spectacular style the following January when two of the Independents who supported it, Jim Kemmy and Seán Dublin Bay Loftus, voted against the budget.

Unlike the governments of Lemass and Ahern, the coalition led by FitzGerald had to deal with a crisis in the public finances arising from the Fianna Fáil manifesto of 1977 and the subsequent profligacy of Charles Haughey who initially promised and then shirked reining in public spending.

That experience of a minority government operating in difficult economic circumstances may be more relevant to today’s politics than the fate of the Lemass and Ahern governments. Still, what the Lemass experience showed was that decisive and courageous government can force Independents to face up to their responsibilities. They have to make a careful calculation about whether they dare bring it down and cause a general election.

The downfall of the first FitzGerald government also contained a salutary lesson for Independents. Loftus who had spent more than 30 years attempting to get elected to the Dáil finally succeeded in June 1981 but he lost his seat after bringing down the government in January 1982 and never regained it.

Overall majority

Further back in history, WT Cosgrave and Éamon de Valera led a number of minority governments. The Cosgrave government formed after the second election of 1927 stayed in office for five years even though it was more than 20 seats short of an overall majority. Cosgrave had only five seats more than the rising and aggressive Fianna Fáil party which had abandoned its policy of abstention but the smaller parties and Independents did not dare bring him down.

De Valera was the most successful political leader in independent Ireland, winning eight general elections, but it is often forgotten that he failed to win an overall majority on three occasions. He managed to form a minority government on each occasion but his tactic was to dissolve the Dáil after less than a year in office and go to the country to seek a mandate for a majority government. It worked for him every time.

The current situation is clearly very different, with no single party remotely close to having the numbers to form a government and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael well short of an overall majority between them. The two parties will not be able to get their nominee for taoiseach elected without the support of some smaller parties or Independents.

All the indications are that neither the Greens, the Social Democrats nor the Labour Party wants to go into government given the monumental scale of the challenge now facing the country. The only option left is for the two Civil War parties to take a leaf out of Lemass’s book and seek the support of Independents for a minority government and if that doesn’t work accept that a second election is the only way to deal with the impasse.