On Monday, June 29th, the Northern Ireland Parades Commission announced its decision to restrict the Drumcree Orange parade by requiring it to disperse upon reaching Drumcree church on July 5th or return via the route by which it had come from the centre of Portadown.
The text of the document announcing the decision acknowledged the competing rights: the right to freedom of expression on the one hand and the right to security from intimidation and to equal respect on the other hand. The commission had taken written and oral evidence before making its decision - 39 people gave oral evidence last January. No representative of the Orange Order agreed to give evidence, written or oral.
In 1986, the Drumcree Orange parade and other Orange parades were banned from marching through Obins Street, another nationalist area in Portadown. The ban has been enforced since. Nobody has since claimed that that ban represented any diminution of Protestant civil and religious liberties. Commenting on the June 29th Parades Commission decision, the First Minister, Mr David Trimble, said: "The commission has played directly into the hands of Sinn Fein/IRA and has disregarded the rights of Orangemen."
On July 1st, the day on which the Northern Ireland Assembly met for the first time, the Ulster Unionist members of the Assembly said the Parades Commission decision was "a surrender to the threat by republican elements on the Garvaghy Road to block the road by force".
In the Assembly that same day, immediately upon his election as First Minister, Mr Trimble said the Drumcree parade restriction was a "massive assault on the civil rights of an important sector of the Northern Ireland community".
On July 1st, the Rev Ian Paisley said in a statement: "A stand must be taken sometime and my party supports the Orangemen in their firm declaration that they are going to stand and defend their inalienable rights in a peaceful but firm manner. For too long the IRA have conquered. The time has come when their evil must be conquered." On July 7th, he said: "This parade is going down the [Garvaghy] road anyway, so it's far better [that happens] before the 12th of July. That will be the settling day."
On July 2nd, an open letter from the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland was published in the two Belfast morning newspapers. It asserted: "Traditional loyal order parades are attacked as part of the republican strategy to remove the British presence from Northern Ireland. All things British are being opposed on three fronts: military, political and cultural, the latter being the excuse to invest time and effort into planning and creating unnecessary opposition to traditional Orange parades. The commission has played directly into the hands of Sinn Fein/IRA and has disregarded the rights of Orangemen."
On July 9th, a leading member of the Orange Order, David McNarry, said: "If her majesty's government is quite prepared to say these people who are suffering at Drumcree, who are staying out at night, who are there because they firmly believe in their civil and religious liberties, if they are to be treated so scantily, then I've got to say that we can, if we wish, put our minds to paralyse this country in a matter of hours."
Commenting on these remarks, Mr Trimble said he had been assured by Mr McNarry that his comments were only a statement of what could happen "if they wish" and was not a threat. Dr Paisley said of Mr McNarry's remarks: "I think it is a factual statement but whether that takes place or not we don't know."
Shortly after 4 a.m. last Sunday, a petrol bomb was thrown into the home of a Catholic woman in Ballymoney. Three of her children, Richard, Mark and Jason Quinn, were burnt to death while screaming for help.
Shortly before the arson attack on the Quinn house, the RUC dispersed loyalists manning a burning barricade nearly. Over the previous week and during the course of the Drumcree stand-off, more than 100 Catholic homes had been firebombed, several Catholic churches were attacked and the home of a Catholic priest was attacked.
Clearly, it is not possible to say with certainty what was in the minds of those who firebombed the Quinn household. Possibly, indeed probably, they had no explicit intention to kill anybody, just as the majority of the other loyalists who had firebombed Catholic homes probably had no explicit intention of killing anybody.
At the very least, the majority of these arsonists intended to terrify Catholics and to drive them from their homes and to retaliate (as they saw it) against the republican threat to them and their heritage. And, at the very least, they were unheeding whether deaths resulted as a consequence or not.
Is it likely that the mindset of these arsonists - including very probably the arsonists who murdered the Quinn children - was not influenced by the language of the unionist and Orange leaders who had portrayed what was at stake at Drumcree in apocalyptic terms?
What were militants inflamed to do if it was indeed true that:
"The [Parades] commission has played directly into the hands of Sinn Fein/IRA and has disregarded the rights of Orangemen" and that the ban represented a "massive assault on the civil rights of an important sector of the Northern Ireland community". (David Trimble).
The ban was "a surrender to the threat by republican elements on the Garvaghy Road to block the road by force". (The Ulster Unionist members of the Assembly).
"A stand must be taken some time and my party supports the Orangemen in their firm declaration that they are going to stand and defend their inalienable rights. The commission has played directly into the hands of Sinn Fein/IRA and has disregarded the rights of Orangemen." (Ian Paisley).
"Traditional loyal order parades are attacked as part of the republican strategy to remove the British presence from Northern Ireland. All things British are being opposed on three fronts: military, political and cultural, the latter being the excuse to invest time and effort into planning and creating unnecessary opposition to traditional Orange parades." (The Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland).
"If her majesty's government is quite prepared to say these people who are suffering at Drumcree, who are staying out at night, who are there because they firmly believe in their civil and religious liberties, if they are to be treated so scantily, then I've got to say that we can, if we wish, put our minds to paralyse this country in a matter of hours." (David McNarry, whose remarks were explained away by David Trimble and Ian Paisley).
Is it any wonder that a few loyalists hotheads, inflamed by the extravagant characterisation of what was happening to them and their heritage, should take action against those (i.e. Catholics) whom they perceive as being part of the conspiracy to destroy their identity? And when better to do that than on the eve of "the settling day"?