Opponents of the government's initiative argue that ETA has always flourished when the power of the state was most directly used against it. Critics of Spain's Prime Minister say his real aim is to keep ETA'sillegitimate campaign on the boil, writes Paddy Woodworth
The Spanish parliament yesterday took the extraordinary step of backing the banning of a political party. The government insists that this is a historic turning point in its battle against the terrorism of the Basque pro-independence group, ETA.
Its critics fear that, not for the first time, a drastic initiative from Madrid may be giving the kiss of life to an expiring political movement.
A large majority of Spanish deputies supported the government's case for banning Batasuna, a party whose close links with ETA have been obvious since it was founded (as Herri Batasuna) in 1978.
In a country which suffered 40 years of dictatorship in the last century, and adopted a democratic constitution only 24 years ago, such a prohibition is an especially sensitive issue.
Moreover, Batasuna is a major player in Basque politics, averaging about 15 per cent of the vote in the region, though its support has dropped sharply since ETA ended its 1998-99 ceasefire. However, the charges levelled by parliament against Batasuna are very serious indeed.
The government's motion yesterday in the Spanish parliament does not just allege that the party is ETA's political wing. It accuses Batasuna itself of "creating a climate of generalised intimidation whose aim is the elimination of the essential conditions for the exercise of pluralism and democracy". This government action is being taken under a new law, passed only two months ago.
The Prime Minister, Mr José María Aznar, did not need parliament's support to move against Batasuna. But he wanted to ensure as broad a base as possible for such a radical initiative by his centre-right Partido Popular. He had the backing of the major opposition Socialist Party. The former communists of the United Left abstained, as did most Catalan nationalists. A handful of others voted against, along with the democratic Basque nationalist parties who oppose ETA's violence but share some of its aims.
Batasuna did not participate, since it does not recognise the Madrid parliament.
The government and the Socialists claim that Batasuna has broken the new law 23 times since June. Its alleged infractions range from refusing to condemn a double killing by ETA last month to forcibly usurping the traditional rights of a mayor in a village fiesta.
The law leaves the final decision on prohibition to the Supreme Court, which may take six months to reach a decision.
By a very curious piece of timing, yesterday's parliamentary vote coincided to the day with a similar initiative by another branch of the judiciary.
The high-profile judge, Baltasar Garzón, moved under earlier legislation to suspend all Batasuna's activities. He claims to have evidence that the group is an integral part of ETA's organisational structure. His conclusions are supported by the respected prosecutor, Jesús Santos.
This ruling could result in the immediate closure of all Batasuna's offices, and its numerous "people's taverns", with highly unpredictable consequences on the ground in the Basque Country.
Ironically, both men were scourges of previous (Socialist) Madrid governments, through their relentless investigation of a campaign of state terrorism against ETA.
In doing so, they demonstrated that the Spanish judiciary was independent of both government and parliament, to an extent remarkable in such a young democracy.
The coincidence of yesterday's parliamentary and judicial moves is at least unfortunate, as it provides fuel for Batasuna's counter-argument that all the machinery of the state is being used, illegitimately, to crush freedom of expression.
It may seem puzzling that Madrid should choose to ban Batasuna at this point, when ETA's activity is at a relatively low ebb, and when Batasuna's vote has dropped, for the first time, below 10 per cent in the Basque Country.
The Partido Popular argues that the situation in the Basque Country has become intolerable for democrats, with assassinations driving both PP and Socialist candidates out of politics.
For the last decade, Batasuna has pursued a policy known as "socialising the suffering". The theory is that all of society should share the pain of imprisoned Basque militants. The reality is the practice of a politics of intolerance, involving street violence and intimidation of political opponents.
Meanwhile, ETA's campaign has effectively made opposition to Basque nationalism a capital offence. The Spanish public is understandably bitterly frustrated, and Mr Aznar's new strategy is very popular.
Critics of the government initiative, however, have strong arguments on their side. They point out that ETA has always flourished when the power of the state was most directly used against it.
This was certainly true under Franco's dictatorship, where massive and brutal police action in the Basque Country provided the group with a sea of disaffected citizens in which its activists could swim with ease.
It was also true of the Socialists' "dirty war" campaign in the 1980s. Torture, shootings and bombings by the security forces then gave some credence to ETA's claim that Spanish democracy did not apply its own rules in their region.
To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, the oxygen of terrorists in a democracy would appear to be the use of illegal repression.
While the measures proposed by Mr Aznar are carefully hedged with legal guarantees - and the Supreme Court could still refuse to approve them - their impact on the Basque situation is hardly likely to be calming. No one in government has explained precisely how banning Batasuna will contribute towards defeating ETA, which hardly needs formal political representation in order to survive.
Iñigo Urkullo, a rising star (and a moderate) in the Basque Nationalist Party, the biggest party in the region, says the new law will in fact drive wavering supporters straight into ETA's arms, and make a bad situation much worse.
He accuses Mr Aznar of sacrificing statesmanship in solving the Basque problem to populist vote-catching in the rest of Spain. And then he goes much further: he says that the Prime Minister's real aim is to undermine the legitimate power of democratic Basque nationalism by keeping ETA's illegitimate campaign on the boil.
That is a very, very serious charge. If there is any truth in it, the Basque Country faces a grim future.
Paddy Woodworth is author of Dirty War, Clean Hands (CUP), to be published in paperback by Yale University Press in the autumn