The Israeli prime minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, lost his majority in the Knesset last July but was able to survive in government until this week when it reconvened. He has now lost a symbolic vote on his opening speech. A section of his Likud Party revolted because of his continuing support for the plan to withdraw Israeli settlements and troops from Gaza the better to consolidate control over the West Bank.
Mr Sharon faces a choice between new elections which he says will not change anything or his preferred course of reconstructing a governing coalition with the opposition Labour Party which may decisively split his own party. Those concerned with peace and stability in the Middle East will watch these developments anxiously to see whether they open up a way to revive the peace process with the Palestinians.
Mr Sharon restated his support for the negotiating plan drawn up by the quartet made up of the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, which demands that a Gaza withdrawal should be linked to a fresh peace effort. Those aware of the cynical remarks last week by his adviser and former chief of staff, Mr Dov Weisglass, cannot but be deeply sceptical about Mr Sharon's true intentions. Mr Weisglass told Ha'aretz: "Effectively this whole package called the Palestinian state, with all that it entails, has been removed indefinitely from the agenda. It supplies the amount of formaldehyde that is necessary so there will not be a political process with the Palestinians".
Right-wing members of Mr Sharon's Likud party say withdrawing from Gaza will undermine Israel's occupation of and settlements in Palestinian lands and lead the way to a Palestinian state. They are not convinced by his determination to maintain military control over Gaza nor by his belief (bolstered by an agreement with the Bush administration) that the plan will strengthen Israel's ability to resist international pressure for an unfavourable settlement. They have strong support in Likud and other right-wing parties and have successfully mobilised Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza behind them.
Nevertheless, two-thirds of Israelis support the Gaza plan and want a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Mr Sharon will bring the Gaza plan to the Knesset on October 25th and in the meantime reopen talks with Labour and other parties on forming a new coalition. Nothing can be expected on the international front before the US elections - realistically until next year. But if any new initiative is to have real purchase it must be accompanied by determined international pressure for a settlement. That must come from the EU and Russia, since the US has effectively abrogated its mediating role by its support for Mr Sharon's plan.
The prospects are not good. There has been little objection to the huge military operation in Gaza, which is to continue. But a credible peace process leading to a sustainable two-state settlement remains a crucial part of any plan to bring democratic change and stability to the Middle East.