MICHEÁL MARTIN and Fianna Fáil face a formidable challenge to begin the process of rebuilding the party. The catastrophic scale of the losses in the general election are becoming more evident daily. Fianna Fáil is now the third largest party in the Dáil, a mere shadow of its former self. It has lost most of its ministers, especially those who could contribute most to the period of reconstruction ahead. It is largely denuded of the younger generation. Any cold analysis of the current state of Fianna Fáil would pose the question: where is it to get the vision and the vigour to renew the party?
Mr Martin has taken the first step in the process of renewal by asking for support from more than 200 party councillors and discipline from 28 outgoing Senators in electing 10 officially sponsored candidates to the new Seanad. Already, a number of outgoing Senators have signalled their unwillingness to step aside.
Commanding only 20 Dáil votes, Mr Martin is in an extremely weak position. A collapse in party discipline at this time and the re-election of long-serving Senators rather than his chosen nominees would compound his difficulties and damage the party’s profile as it faces up to the challenge of Sinn Féin. The extent of the party’s collapse is reflected by the fact that it currently has more Senators than TDs.
Whatever else happens, Fianna Fáil’s representation in the Seanad will fall dramatically in these elections. But a devil-take-the-hindmost approach by sitting Senators could seriously damage the party’s long-term prospects for recovery. It might also raise questions about the advisability of putting forward a candidate in the presidential election.
The first test of Mr Martin’s authority as leader will be seen in how many of the party’s 10 approved Seanad candidates are elected. He has met many of the party’s councillors and canvassed their support. But the voting intentions of councillors are difficult to discern, particularly as many of them have had long-term relationships with sitting Senators. Will party interests be put before personal commitments?
Fianna Fáil and its new leader are in a far worse position than Fine Gael in 2002. Enda Kenny, as the party’s new leader, rebuilt and renewed the party from the bottom up. His incremental success was apparent in local, European and national elections. Last month’s electoral triumph took nearly a decade to achieve. For Mr Martin and Fianna Fáil, the challenge to reverse the party’s fortunes is much greater and time is pressing.
The party’s councillors, TDs and Senators are facing a clear choice. Either they back their leader’s judgment by supporting his list of candidates who, if elected, will use the Upper House to advance their prospects of Dáil success. Or they reject Mr Martin’s advice and vote for candidates who are less likely to be elected to the Dáil.
The party is approaching a crunch point. These elections will be a measure of the Fianna Fáil party – its internal discipline, its short-term recovery prospects and the authority of its new leader.