SDLP is simply not at the races

Once, says Fionnula O'Connor ,  there was a plan that the two governments would pull together to help the SDLP against the rise…

Once, says Fionnula O'Connor,  there was a plan that the two governments would pull together to help the SDLP against the rise of Sinn Féin.

For a long time, it was just about the only plan. Anglo-Irishry, some unionists called it darkly, seeing correctly that they had been found wanting as agent of progress and the SDLP was to be rewarded for John Hume's vision.

For a number of reasons the plan combusted, not least because the Hume vision came to pass and republicans inherited its lustre.

This week David Trimble and Gerry Adams came out of Downing Street and adjourned to the Northern Ireland Office for further talks. Not long ago, the very idea of that combination of talkers would have been major news. Now, as indeed for months past, Ulster Unionism and Sinn Féin are busy negotiating the next step, the SDLP is not at the match and no one is surprised. To complete the effect, the negotiators clearly have the blessing of Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, and US envoy Richard Haass.

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Will there be a deal? If so, and down the road after an election, will that deal produce a new executive?

These are imponderables, ponder though many do. It is hard to imagine how Mr Trimble can come out the other side of the polls with fewer than five anti-agreementeers in his Assembly party.

Five would be enough to tip the balance conclusively against a vote for Mr Trimble as First Minister and Martin McGuinness as Deputy First.

Hold on, you say. Are there not whispers about lowering the vote threshold? And Sinn Féin the second biggest party? Mr McGuinness, not Mr Durkan, as Deputy First? When did that become a sure thing? Nothing is certain in elections.

The SDLP to date has been only narrowly outpolled by Sinn Féin.

They still have more seats in local government. But times are a-changing, almost as we watch. Looking like a winner is electoral magic. The sight of the republican leadership strolling out of 10 Downing Street within minutes of Ulster Unionists is worth votes. The absence of Mr Durkan means fewer votes for the SDLP. Perception looks on course to become reality.

The SDLP leader's increasingly hurt and angry tones are not electoral magic. Unproved it may be, but with each successive moment that Sinn Féin is taken to be the party with whom Mr Trimble must deal, so it settles more comfortably into the role of leading nationalist party. Well might Mr Durkan complain: what's a man to do?

He had a rum choice to make and fell awkwardly between the two unpleasant options. Band with us to exclude Sinn Féin, said Mr Trimble. Stick by Sinn Féin, said the voice of electoral wisdom, or you're a goner. Mr Durkan turned his back on Mr Trimble, very properly citing inclusion as the fundamental precept of the Belfast Agreement, but as proofs or apparent proofs of republican wrongdoing began to accumulate, he couldn't defend Sinn Féin. Now the SDLP is a goner anyhow, at least in being seen to count as the senior nationalist representative. Virtue is its own reward, but goodness may not comfort those the voters reject.

Anti-agreement critics scold that this was inevitable once Sinn Féin was allowed to box above its weight using the IRA for leverage.

True enough, the SDLP has no arms to decommission, nothing to barter with Mr Trimble or Mr Blair. Seen in close-up through several elections, however, the contest between the two nationalist parties is more complicated than that.

Republicans' appetite for politics is what distinguishes them first on the ground, the sight of young Sinn Féiners with clipboards registering their way through constituencies, beating the bushes for new, tired or disillusioned voters.

In organisational drive and skill republicans most resemble the DUP. Next comes an Ulster Unionist Party more coherent on the ground than at senior level, though with much less youthful support than the other two. The SDLP's effort is only patchily visible to other interested parties, at a much lower rate than necessary to hold its vote, never mind increase it.

How can Mark Durkan reverse the judgment of both governments that it is Gerry Adams they should deal with on behalf of nationalists, not him? Can't be done, but his party needs saving. He could beat his colleagues out to beat the bushes, for a start, and stop sounding like a loser.

Harsh words for a decent man who leads a decent party, but then politics is a harsh trade. The SDLP leader is right to feel aggrieved, and right that Dublin and London have both let him down, if only in presentation.

The trouble is that except once for the record, there are no votes in saying so.