A tumultuous week in the Middle East sees both the 10 -year-old Oslo peace process between Israel and the Palestinians and the international road map designed to revive it, in virtual collapse.
Following the resignation of the Palestinian prime minister, Mr Mahmoud Abbas, and another round of Israeli attacks on Hamas leaders, two lethal suicide bombings in Jerusalem led to the fateful decision by the Israeli security cabinet to expel Mr Yasser Arafat, the elected president of the Palestinian Authority, from the West Bank. Only international pressure is preventing implementation of this decision, which all the parties to the road map believe would lead to an explosion of violence. But they will have to act together urgently and determinedly if the political process is to be restored. There is little sign that they can do so.
A complex and ruthless game of politics lies behind this sorry state of affairs. Substantial forces on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides have little or no commitment to the Oslo process in any case. Political initiatives to revive it have been continually frustrated by Israeli security hawks and by Islamist and secular militants on the Palestinian side who want to destroy Israel and not make peace with it. They could be contained when there was genuine commitment and hope on both sides that the vicious circle of attack and counter-attack could be halted to allow negotiations recommence. This was the purpose of the road map agreed by the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, Russia and moderate Arab states last year, and which secured the agreement of Israel and the Palestinians. It provides for an intricate and reciprocal series of confidence-building steps.
Implementing this was complicated greatly by the build-up to war in Iraq over the past year. That delayed publication of the plan because US attention was diverted and the international coalition responsible for the plan was bitterly divided. Expectations in the Bush administration that a rapid victory in Iraq would lead to a transformation of politics in the Middle East as a whole, thereby setting terms for an Israeli-Palestinian peace, have proved quite wrong. Rather, the war's outcome has made it more difficult by strengthening intransigents on both sides. And the looming domestic difficulties facing Mr Bush mean he is less and less able or willing to exert the necessary pressure on Israel not to expel Mr Arafat.
As the Taoiseach said yesterday after meeting President Chirac in Paris, Mr Arafat's expulsion would make a bad situation much worse by justifying recourse to violence on the part of Palestinians who regard him as their legitimate leader. Israeli critics of the policy say an expelled leader on a perpetual world speaking tour condemning the decision would make it worse from their point of view. The Europeans especially must reinforce pressure on Israel and the Palestinian Authority to avoid such a political and security catastrophe over coming months. Now that President Bush has decided to seek another UN resolution to get more help in Iraq, the opportunity must also be taken to restore the road map.