Russia fires shot across bows of EU, US and Nato

ANALYSIS/ TOM CLONAN : WHILE RUSSIAN president Dmitry Medvedev has signalled a halt to the Russian advance on the Georgian capital…

ANALYSIS/ TOM CLONAN :WHILE RUSSIAN president Dmitry Medvedev has signalled a halt to the Russian advance on the Georgian capital Tbilisi, there have been no suggestions of a withdrawal on the part of Russian forces in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Georgia itself.

It is possible that the Russian military will seek to consolidate their forces within Georgia and to hold ground there.

Russian military sources have indicated to The Irish Times that they might seek to occupy a buffer zone within Georgia - a corridor of territory about 20km (12 miles) deep, designed to "place Ossetian territory and Russian citizens beyond the range of Georgian artillery".

Such a development would confirm suspicions that Russia is determined to make an example of Georgia and to send a warning to other former Warsaw Pact allies - particularly those with sizeable Russian populations, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine - that irrespective of EU or Nato membership, the Kremlin is determined to subordinate eastern Europe to its political and military will.

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Russia's military operations in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Georgia have been undertaken with a swiftness that hints at considerable prior military planning. The rapidly evolving military campaign has had a number of characteristics that will give rise to grave concern within the EU and Nato.

What is most disturbing about Russia's military action - apart from the casualties inflicted on the civilian population - is the speed at which its operations were mounted. Within 72 hours of Friday's commencement of hostilities, the Russians would appear to have deployed as many as 30,000 ground troops to South Ossetia and Abkhazia whilst deploying its Black Sea fleet to bombard and blockade the Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi - key oil and gas gateways to central Europe and the EU.

Simultaneously, the Russian airforce - with over 30 airbases in the Caucasus - rapidly asserted air superiority in the region and struck at will at military, economic and civilian targets throughout South Ossetia and Georgia itself.

Over 300 Russian combat aircraft have been involved in these operations. The control and co-ordination requirements for such air operations further suggest premeditation and long-term planning on the part of the Russian authorities for their punitive operations in Georgia.

EU and Nato military observers will note - with alarm - how rapidly this mobilisation of significant air, ground and naval assets has taken place.

By comparison, it took the EU months of wrangling and tortuous negotiations to deploy a rapid reaction force of just 5,000 troops to Chad earlier this year.

Almost all of the Russian military's combat arms have been involved in the fighting over the last number of days - from surface vessels to airforce assets to motorised rifle troops, tank forces and rocket forces and heavy artillery. Military sources indicate that Russian special forces, or Spetsnatz troops, are also operating within

Georgian territory, gathering intelligence on defences around Tbilisi while providing target

data for air strikes. A large force of Russian airborne troops has also taken control of Abkhazia and is engaged in the detailed destruction of Georgian

military and administrative infrastructure in the Kodori Gorge area.

Georgia's army and airforce - which number just 18,000 - are hopelessly outnumbered and outgunned by their Russian counterparts in the current conflict. Until this week for example, its airforce consisted of just nine combat aircraft, with the army possessing just 80 serviceable tanks. The Russians - with a total inventory of more than 1,500 combat aircraft and over 8,000 main battle tanks - have deployed about 500 tanks to the area.

Tactically, the Russians would appear to have applied a sledgehammer to crack a nut in Ossetia.

Strategically, the Russians would appear to be signalling to the EU and Nato their absolute determination to use overwhelming and indiscriminate military force to prevent their regional power being challenged or eroded.

Tracing the Russian military's route through the Roki tunnel into South Ossetia via the captured city of Tskhinvali, the Russian axis of advance is provocatively geared towards the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. A short stretch of motorway is all that separates Russian forces from Mikheil Saakashvili's presidential quarters.

US troops that were advising and training the Georgian military have abandoned the city in the last 48 hours. The tense stand-off between Russian troops and the Georgian military around Gori will no doubt continue in the coming days - given that the Russians have reserved the right to continue to act in self-defence, as they see it.

Russia has used less than 10 per cent of its military strength to send a clear message to the international community - that a resurgent and belligerent Kremlin is prepared to use blunt military force to reassert and preserve its sphere of influence.

Under former president, now prime minister, Vladimir Putin's direction, Russian military spending has increased dramatically in recent years - to an annual budget of $31 billion (€20.8 billion) - along with a major rearmament package of $240 billion approved by the Russian government.

The EU, US and Nato will be cognisant of the wider implications of Russia's emerging military stance - particularly in terms of energy and food security in the coming decade.

• Dr Tom Clonan is The Irish Timessecurity analyst. He lectures in the school of media, DIT.