The forthcoming referendum on the Eighth Amendment is going to be won, and lost, on the “12-week” issue.
While one side is embracing it with gusto, the other appears nervous of it. The most recent poll conducted for this newspaper, in January, found a "clear majority of voters" (56 per cent) backing repeal of the Eighth Amendment and the Government's proposal to legislate for abortion on request up to 12 weeks, with 29 per cent against and 15 per cent undecided. Even more, 64 per cent, strongly back a woman's right to choose.
Two figures, however, stand out. The first is 6 per cent; the size of the “clear majority”. The other is 57 per cent. This is the number who have reservations about the 12-week proposal – more than those who back repeal and regulated abortion up to 12 weeks.
These figures are very tight. Each side correctly sees the 12-week issue as crucial. The anti-abortion lobby has taken the gloves off and is going for it with aplomb, making claims, for instance, that the proposed legislation will usher in a regime “significantly more liberal” than that in the United Kingdom (according to Declan Ganley in this paper this week); that it will radically change the Irish culture around unintended pregnancies, and that it will mean “unrestricted abortion” in the first three months of pregnancy.
A date has not yet been set for the referendum. Perhaps the repeal side can be forgiven for failing as yet to convincingly provide a counter-narrative. But it can't for much longer
Last weekend, in the liberal bastion of Dublin 4, canvassers with the Dublin Bay South Repeal campaign heard how effectively this narrative is being messaged. Several members of the “undecided” 15 per cent on the doorsteps said how concerned they were about where the proposed legislation would bring the country, about how it could lead to an unregulated, unmonitored abortion industry here, about how it could “change the culture” and that “things were already too easy already” for the young.
Defensive tack
A date has not yet been set for the referendum. Perhaps the repeal side can be forgiven for failing as yet to convincingly provide a counter-narrative. But it can’t for much longer.
There appears to be a reluctance to take this on. I have heard some on the repeal side describe the 12-week proposal as a “difficulty” that should be in some way be glossed over, or not brought up on the doorsteps; that voters are most convinced by stressing the issue of women’s health and so the emphasis should be on “repeal”, with terms such as “choice” and “abortion on request” avoided.
The risk for the repeal side is that this defensive, apologetic, evasive tack will hand voters to the campaigners of the anti-abortion lobby.
If they are to win, the pro-repeal campaign must start owning the 12-week issue, and start explaining – calmly, confidently, respectfully and accurately – their case that the proposed legislation will simply modernise Irish healthcare, bring it into line with international norms and retain Ireland’s place as having one of the most restrictive abortion regimes in Europe.
Starting point
Everyone speaking for repeal should, as a starting point, read the Report of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment. Minus appendices, it is just 15 pages long. It can be found easily online. It sets out clearly the rationale for the 12-week proposal.
It points out that thousands of women and girls have taken the abortion pill – it can only be taken up to 12 weeks – illegally and without medical supervision. It says this will continue whether abortion is legislated for or not. This has to be faced and our women and girls must be provided with medical supervision. It notes difficulties verifying rape or sexual assault. If we want to enable women or girls pregnant as a result of rape to terminate a resulting pregnancy the only way to ensure this is to provide regulated abortion up to 12 weeks.
Under the proposed legislation, abortion services at all stages of pregnancy will be regulated. Two doctors must sign off on a decision to terminate. It looks likely there will be a “cooling off” period between requesting an abortion and getting one. An abortion must only be provided through a GP-led service.
The proposed 12-week limit on abortion would bring Ireland into line with most of Europe, including Austria, Denmark, Armenia, Belgium, France, the Czech Republic, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Russia and Switzerland, and would be more restrictive than in Sweden where the limit is 18 weeks, than Spain (14 weeks), the Netherlands (22 weeks), Finland (20 weeks) and the UK where the limit is 24 weeks. The limit in Portugal is 10-16 weeks, depending on circumstances.
Other countries with “cooling off” periods include Germany and Portugal, where a woman must wait three days between seeking an abortion and having one. In the Netherlands it’s four to six days.
Those who believe the 12-week proposal is reasonable, rational and moderate need to champion it. Ducking the issue will not deliver the result they desire.
Kitty Holland is social affairs correspondent