ANALYSIS:Without challengers Cowen seems secure for now – but TDs' views could be decisive, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
RUMOURS OF Brian Cowen’s political demise have again proved premature but there is still a big question mark over whether he will lead Fianna Fáil into the forthcoming election.
While the Taoiseach had no difficulty in seeing off his critics at yesterday’s meeting of the parliamentary party he has a lot of thinking to do in the coming days about his next step.
Critically, no potential alternative leader was prepared to put himself, or herself, forward in advance of yesterday’s meeting. In the absence of a viable challenger most TDs kept their mouths shut even though many now have deep misgivings about Cowen’s continued leadership.
Whether they will take the opportunity offered by the Taoiseach to voice those misgivings in their private meetings with him over the next few days will have a crucial bearing on whether he stays on to lead Fianna Fáil into the election campaign or whether he decides to step down.
Cowen said last night he would make an assessment of the collective mood of his parliamentary colleagues in coming to a decision about the best electoral strategy for Fianna Fáil. He also pointed to the democratic procedures in the party for removing him if that is what enough TDs want to do.
The two leading potential challengers, Micheál Martin and Brian Lenihan, had separate meetings with the Taoiseach on Monday. It seems that both men discussed the Fianna Fáil leadership with Cowen and assessed the challenge facing the party but neither of them asked him to step down.
Lenihan and Martin both looked very ill at ease in the Dáil chamber on Wednesday as Cowen provided more details of his contacts during 2008 with Seán FitzPatrick and others connected with Anglo Irish Bank.
The demeanour of the two Ministers and the whispered misgivings of a lot of TDs on Wednesday evening gave rise to the speculation of a move against Cowen at yesterday’s parliamentary party meeting. When it was postponed from 11.30am until 3pm rumours abounded that something dramatic was about to happen.
The Taoiseach met most of the Fianna Fáil Cabinet Ministers yesterday before the parliamentary party meeting. He did not meet Lenihan, who was in Belfast for a North-South ministerial conference; and neither did he meet Martin, who was attending a lunch with the Serbian foreign minister.
Both men were there for the parliamentary party meeting but they did not speak and neither did Mary Hanafin, who is also regarded as a contender for the leadership when a vacancy arises.
Cowen opened the meeting by telling his TDs that he was prepared to meet them individually over the next few days and that he would make an assessment of the position in the light of those discussions. Some TDs, including Michael Kennedy from Dublin North, interpreted this as indicating that the Taoiseach might be prepared to step down.
However, Government Chief Whip John Curran made a very different assessment, saying that Cowen had made it clear that he intended to lead Fianna Fáil into the forthcoming election. As long as potential challengers refuse to come forward it would appear that Cowen’s position is secure.
“It looks as if Martin and Lenihan are spooking each other and that is protecting Cowen, for the moment at least,” said one senior party figure last night.
Another factor in Cowen’s favour is that his removal as party leader would create a complex political crisis as the new Fianna Fáil leader would not be able to take over as taoiseach. That in turn would almost inevitably precipitate an immediate general election.
Independent TD Michael Lowry yesterday repeated his determination not to vote for a new Fianna Fáil leader as taoiseach and said that because of the political uncertainty and instability that would result from that situation it would be imperative that the Dáil be dissolved and an immediate general election take place.
The difficulty faced by Fianna Fáil in that situation with a new party leader in place while Cowen remained as acting Taoiseach was one of the reasons that prompted TDs to shy away, for the moment at least, from changing leaders.
The bottom line, though, for many TDs is that, regardless of their personal regard for him, they now consider Cowen a liability when it comes to the chances of holding their seats. If enough of them are prepared to tell him that to his face there is a strong chance that he will step down in the next few days.
A new leader would have to call an election very quickly rather than hanging on until March as Cowen had intended. There would be a problem sorting out how to deal with the Finance Bill but it is not an insuperable one. A shortened version of the Bill could be rushed through the Dáil before the end of this month or the full Bill postponed until after the election when it would have to be passed by a new government.
An early election would put paid to cherished Green Party legislation such as the Climate Change Bill or the waste levies, but both of these pieces of legislation are far too complex and important in any case to be rushed through the Dáil in its dying days. The position should become a lot clearer by the time the Dáil meets again on Tuesday.
Stephen Collins is Political Editor of The Irish Times