The future of the Coalition hinges on how well it handles the rollout of the Covid vaccine in the coming months.
Almost as important as the vaccination programme itself is the way in which the rate of progress is communicated to the public. So far it has not done well on either front.
The need for reassurance is all the more urgent given the rampant surge of the virus since Christmas.
Many people are now more frightened that at any stage since the pandemic began and they really do need to know that there is a coherent plan in place to vaccinate the country as quickly as possible.
One of the reasons for the explosion of the virus since Christmas is that many people stopped listening to official advice. The public squabbling between Nphet and the Government over the timing of moves from one level of restrictions to another created confusion and undermined the unity of purpose that characterised the first lockdown in the spring.
The Nphet strategy of trying to scare people out of their minds with worry so that they stayed at home was all very fine for the first few months but following the big drop in cases over the summer something far more nuanced was needed to ensure that people followed official advice in the constantly changing pandemic.
The Government’s efforts to ease the restrictions was undermined by Nphet’s hectoring and between them they managed to send out confusing messages.
Having endured a stricter lockdown than almost every other European country for most of the year, a great number of people were simply at the end of their tether in the run-up to Christmas and were no longer prepared to heed the incessant warnings about social gatherings.
That has led to the current situation in which the virus is running rampant. The fact that people feel left in the dark about the real state of the vaccination programme is adding to the problem.
Mood will turn ugly
At their first meeting of the year earlier this week Fine Gael TDs expressed worry at the lack of information about the pace of the vaccine rollout. They rightly sense that while the public doesn't expect everybody can be vaccinated at once the mood will turn ugly if people feel that the programme is being botched.
It seems the vaccine is being administered seven days a week and the relatively slow pace of the programme is being dictated by the limited availability of the Pfizer vaccine through the EU procurement system rather than local incompetence.
One way or another the country stands at a critical point in the battle against Covid
Public confidence has not been helped by the fact that the vaccination programme in the UK is being rolled out at a much faster rate than here.
The main reason for the disparity is probably the fact that the AstraZeneca jab is already in widespread use in the UK, but it is difficult to stop people making invidious comparisons.
Facts and figures
What is required is for facts and figures about the rollout here to be made available as quickly as possible.
The public is getting a daily barrage of information about the rate of infection, the number of people in intensive care and the number of deaths. If these figures can be provided in daily bulletins why can the number of people being vaccinated each day not be supplied in a similar fashion?
Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly has belatedly got the message and has started to up his game, but it is not before time.
The sense of urgency also needs to get through to the Government’s advisory group on vaccination, which has, to date, appeared more intent on public relations photo opportunities with vaccine recipients than the provision of information.
The wide distribution of a vaccine through doctor’s surgeries and pharmacies will not be possible until the EU approves the Oxford AstraZeneca version. This will be much easier and quicker to distribute than the Pfizer one currently being used to vaccinate health staff and nursing home residents.
The European Medicines Agency is due to make a decision on the AstraZeneca product by the end of this month, so the health service here needs to be ready to move into action immediately when it becomes available, hopefully next month.
There is also a need for more clarity about who should be lined up for priority vaccination in the early waves. For instance the Mandate trade union, representing the retail trade, has made the valid claim that they deserve to be treated as frontline workers. In fact the 100,000 or so people who staff our supermarkets and essential shops are the unsung heroes of the pandemic. They have been risking their health and working away without complaint since it started, regardless of the danger. Contrast their public-spirited attitude with that of the teachers’ unions.
One way or another the country stands at a critical point in the battle against Covid and the Government needs to demonstrate that it has a workable plan for the final and crucial phase.