As a general election approaches, the Coalition parties will be buoyed up by the findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which shows a four point rise in public satisfaction with the Government during the past five weeks. That translates into a 56 per cent satisfaction rating, compared to 37 per cent of the electorate who express dissatisfaction.
Almost as important as the results of this particular survey has been the remarkable stability of the Government parties during the past twelve months. Support for both Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats remained firm and approval of the Government stayed well over 50 per cent.The worsening economic situation and fall-out from the tribunals has not impacted negatively on the Coalition Government. And while those surveyed identified health, unemployment, crime, the cost of living and the economy as the issues that will influence their voting intentions in the coming general election, the main opposition parties have failed to generate political traction on these key concerns of the electorate.
Fine Gael and its leader, Mr Michael Noonan, will be particularly disappointed by the findings. In spite of a successful ardfheis in early February, the party actually lost public support since our January opinion poll. When party figures were adjusted by MRBI, support for Fine Gael fell by one point to 20 per cent, a position it occupied in January, 2001, before Mr Noonan launched his successful challenge to the leadership of Mr John Bruton. Worse than that, Mr Noonan's personal satisfaction rating declined a further two points to 29 per cent, since January. This fall was, however, accounted for by the negative responses of Fianna Fáil voters. Within Fine Gael his satisfaction rating rose from 57 to 63 per cent.
The Labour Party and its leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, face similar - if slightly less pressing - difficulties. In the past year, it has ceded important protest-vote ground to Sinn Féin. And while the latest opinion poll shows overall support for the party rising by a single point to 12 per cent, it has moved comfortably ahead of Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and the Green Party in Dublin. In spite of that, Mr Quinn's personal satisfaction rating still languishes at 41 per cent.
A breakdown of the figures on a regional basis would suggest the Green Party and Sinn Féin are attracting support from the major parties, particularly in Dublin. Both parties strayed into double digit support levels in Dublin in the last two surveys.
The Government parties enjoyed a combined, adjusted, support level of 46 per cent in this survey, with the Progressive Democrats remaining static at four per cent and Fianna Fáil adding a point to 42 per cent. The relative weakness of Fianna Fáil's support base in Dublin, compared to the rest of the country, may become a cause for concern. But it still dominates the capital city. And the fragmented nature of support for the opposition parties should assist with voting transfers. If the results of this poll were replicated in a general election, Mr Ahern could be confident of leading the next Government.