The Coalition Government has begun to recover some of the ground lost in the local elections last June. Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats could be on the rebound. That is the main finding of today's Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll which has been anxiously awaited by the political parties after attempts to reposition themselves before the electorate over the summer. But an equally significant feature is that the Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny, is seen as an alternative taoiseach for the first time ever.
The Coalition parties have every reason to be pleased with the findings of the poll. The Government's satisfaction rating has increased by nine percentage points over the past four months to reach its highest level since the 2002 general election. Both the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, have risen in the popularity stakes. The changes in support for Fianna Fáil and the PDs are significant only in that they indicate the beginnings of a recovery. The calculated moves by Fianna Fáil, in particular, to present a more caring image of the party coupled with the Cabinet reshuffle last week have had the desired impact on voters.
For all of that, however, the most interesting finding of this opinion poll is that Mr Kenny has arrived on the political centre-stage. His popularity rating has increased by a massive 13 percentage points to 46 per cent since June. He now holds the highest satisfaction rating of any Fine Gael leader in opposition since Mr John Bruton in November 1999. The party will be hoping that the downward spiral may be broken.
The Labour Party will be disappointed with its performance in the poll. While the leader, Mr Pat Rabbitte, has increased his satisfaction level by five percentage points and remains three points ahead of his prospective coalition partner, the party support has dropped by two points over the summer. The controversy over the nomination of a candidate for the Presidency cannot have helped the party. The more important consideration, however, is how the findings of the poll will impact on the development of an alternative government in the Dáil session ahead. Fine Gael holds the initiative for the first time.
The changes in support for the smaller parties are insignificant since the local and European elections. The president of Sinn Féin, Mr Adams, registered an eight-percentage-point increase in popularity and party support has increased by a single point against the backdrop of the Northern negotiations with the Democratic Unionist Party. The reported commitment to stand down the IRA may be reflected in the findings.
Today's poll is the first barometer of voters' reaction to the political positioning of the summer. And the political dynamic is changing. But it is the underlying trend that matters at this point. This would indicate that the Coalition's fortunes could be changing for the better. And for the first time, a Fine Gael-led alternative could be viewed as a realistic option.