The IMC's report on the IRA army council has provided an opportunity for the deadlock between Sinn Féin and the DUP to be broken. But everything hinges on Peter Robinson's next move, writes GERRY MORIARTY
DR JOHN Alderdice and the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) provided a clean bill of health for the IRA yesterday afternoon. He and his three colleagues in the IMC knew that the IRA army council had not met for "some time", he told us. He preferred not to say how long it was since P O'Neill and his colleagues last got together in council mode.
But he was prepared to tell us, based on information gathered by the IMC, what O'Neill and his army council friends might be doing at the moment. "Do they meet with each other in some social contexts or Sinn Féin contexts or in other contexts? Yes. Do they meet as an army council? No. Have they been doing it for some time? No. Is there any intention on their part to meet again in that context? I don't believe that there is." Such was the comatose state of the army council that Lord Alderdice, a psychiatrist, suggested that seeking its disbandment was like "waking somebody up to give them a sleeping tablet".
The bottom line from the IMC was that the IRA and its army council was "no longer operational or functional"; or, as Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern put it, the IRA was not only gone away but was not coming back.
The effective, considered views of Ahern and Northern secretary Shaun Woodward - who said the IMC had made it clear the army council was "redundant" - were that the report should be sufficient for the DUP to move finally on transferring police and justice powers to the Northern Executive.
Peter Robinson was impressed but not totally. He welcomed the IMC's findings but wanted more. That could be because he fears being outflanked on the right from former ally, now opponent, Jim Allister. "An essential part of building confidence in the community is that the army council has moved from a body that is not meeting to one that will never meet again," he said. "While it is marked progress that the IRA is no longer doing business, the unionist community needs to be convinced by the republican leadership that the IRA is out of business for good."
Did Robinson want a picture of the IRA army council "not meeting", wondered republican leader Gerry Adams? You could imagine a "do not bend" envelope arriving at DUP HQ in east Belfast from a west Belfast address containing a photograph of an empty room. Would that do?
The governments and Adams - although he would claim to be antipathetic to the IMC - are delighted with the monitoring body's report. As Sinn Féin and the DUP begin talks at Stormont this morning to try to end the logjam, it is hardly surprising that Robinson, initially at least, would be guarded in his response.
There are issues to be thrashed out between the two parties in addition to policing and justice, such as educational reform, the Irish language and what will be built on the site of the old Maze prison. Robinson isn't going to give away his negotiating position, which is fair enough.
But such is the strength of the IMC report that it would be difficult for the DUP to be dismissive of its findings. This, the IMC's 19th report, was the most positive about the IRA. And the overall "trajectory" in recent times was positive, said Lord Alderdice and his colleague Joe Brosnan at yesterday's press conference. Rather than formally disbanding, the IRA had chosen "another method of bringing what it describes as its armed struggle to a final close," they found.
The IMC reported that the IRA was committed to "an exclusively peaceful path"; that it had "abandoned its terrorist structures, preparations and capabilities"; that it was not involved in illegal activity; and that it was committed to supporting policing and the criminal justice system.
"We believe that for some time now it has given up what it used to do and that by design it is being allowed wither away," said the IMC.
Lord Alderdice and his fellow commissioners went further in their analysis. The IRA of the "recent and violent past is well beyond recall," they reported. "If another paramilitary organisation were to seek to emerge in future it would have to start afresh with new leaders and a new generation of active members. Even if those people adopted the nomenclature and doctrine of the past, the organisation would to all intents and purposes be a new one."
There was one small line for the doubters to seize upon. The IMC said it did not "foresee that there will be formal announcements about the disbandment of all or part of the [IRA's] structure". This could be for symbolic rather than political reasons and to prevent dissidents claiming the "mantle" of the army council for itself, suggested Lord Alderdice.
Predictable enough, the chief Doubting Thomas was Jim Allister, the MEP who resigned from the DUP and formed the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party, which opposes sharing power with Sinn Féin. Behind all its "Jesuitical verbiage" the IMC was unable to say the "IRA army council is gone", he said.
Allister's ability to find a negative in an ocean of positives is pertinent because Robinson now has choices to make. Allister poses competition to the DUP, which is not used to having right wing opposition. If the First Minister takes Allister's line and insist he needs more from the IRA then that could be because he is motivated by concerns about the threat from the TUV. That could even mean holding out on moving on policing and justice until as far away as next June - after the next European elections - in order to maintain a staunch position to try to ensure Allister's seat reverts to the DUP.
That could serve the interests of the DUP but hardly of Northern politics. It could also hand Sinn Féin victory in the "blame game" - one of the key determinants in the self-same politics. Should Gerry Adams proceed with the Sinn Féin threat to walk away from the Northern Executive if policing and justice are not devolved, he would be able to argue it was because DUP demands were unreasonable, using the IMC report as backup.
Alternatively, Robinson can strike now and get the outstanding issues sorted by Christmas. That can mean gain and some pain for the DUP and Sinn Féin. Neither party will get all it requires on issues such as policing and justice, the Irish language, the Maze and education.
But, as previously stated here, the foundation for a deal is already in place if the DUP and Sinn Féin, in these talks beginning today, want to build on it.
• Gerry Moriarty is Northern Editor of The Irish Times