Newton Emerson: Unionism to squander opportunity presented by EU blunder

Detailed accounts have been written of the madness that gripped Brussels last Friday in the hours before it tried to trigger article 16.

Parallel events in Northern Ireland were overlooked amid the fuss, but in their own little way they were just as instructive.

Last Friday morning, the Ulster Unionist Party revealed a sea border scandal: the British military was having to fill in customs forms and give 15 days' notice to the EU and Nato before moving equipment from Britain.

Unionists were, of course, aghast. Loyalist rumblings, already building, jumped up the seismic scale.

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Newton Emerson: Unionists have no choice but to make the Irish Sea border work

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The ministry of defence offered a boilerplate statement that the sea order had “not placed any limitations” on its “ability to conduct operations”.

There has never been a better time for unionism to come together to lobby for a minimal interpretation of the protocol, a sea border as frictionless as possible and a genuine `best of both worlds` outcome for Northern Ireland

This supine acceptance only made matters worse. By 9am, the UUP had told the Northern Secretary to trigger article 16 and DUP leader Arlene Foster had spoken to the defence secretary about "the sovereignty of the UK."

At this point Foster was still clinging on to a position of making the sea border work, as opposed to DUP hardliners demanding its immediate abolition. But as tensions mounted the party slid towards its own article 16 demand. Like journalists across Belfast, DUP representatives were hearing one message from loyalists: this was the final straw.

Then, sensationally, the EU triggered article 16 itself.

Reset relationships

One common point of optimism could be discerned in the reaction from unionists, nationalists and the British and Irish governments. The EU’s mistake was a chance to reset relationships on the Northern Ireland protocol and take a more balanced and realistic approach to its implementation.

The principle of “both sides as bad as each other” – the weary resignation on which Northern Ireland rests – had been re-established. EU arrogance and British embarrassment were evened out. Irish Europhilia, mostly displaced Anglophobia, had met its Waterloo.

Within Northern Ireland, the military row was seen as the perfect example of what a new approach should address. The sea border is meant to protect peace and the EU single market. How could a measure so obviously provocative yet irrelevant as military customs forms have made it through the committees on implementation? It should have been struck out at once.

No more could Brussels use Northern Ireland as a bargaining chip by demanding maximum interpretation of the protocol and treating everything coming from Britain as “at risk”’.

Newly humbled, it should move to treating everything as not at risk unless proved otherwise – the implication of its previous promises and of allowances already made, such as waiving procedures for goods heading to Britain.

Even loyalists, while still furious, shared this hope. That was not enough to calm all tensions. From Monday, sea border staff were withdrawn from Larne and Belfast due to fears of intimidation. On Tuesday, spooked by a poll showing DUP support moving towards the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice party, Foster surrendered to her own hardliners and announced a DUP "five-point plan" to abolish the protocol.

Opting out

Because abolition is not in unionism’s gift, the DUP was in reality opting out of Brexit to sit on the sidelines and carp. The plan’s threats of obstruction are hollow: an implied boycott of the North-South Ministerial Council applies only to discussing the protocol – and Foster still says she wants to “work with the Irish Government”.

There was so much politicking on Tuesday, a story slipped out in the late afternoon almost unnoticed.

“Military travel issues resolved”, reported the BBC.

The ministry of defence had admitted it was all a misunderstanding on its part. The protocol contains an exemption to the military equipment requirement in the EU customs code, so paperwork had never been necessary.

The ministry failed to spot this and instructed its officials to submit declarations. The UK never raised the issue at the implementation committees.

Now both sides were truly as bad as each other. London had been as cavalier as Brussels in handling Northern Ireland with care – impeding its own army was a mistake every bit as extraordinary as the EU blocking medical supplies.

In fairness to the UUP, it had said all along the fault probably lay with UK defence officials. However, the assumption was that they had rolled over to a maximum interpretation of the protocol, rather than simply not reading it.

After the EU triggered article 16, the British government’s restraint was widely praised. Might it have been tinged with sheepishness?

There is no doubt London and Brussels have had a scare over the past week. Along with Dublin, they seem freshly committed to compromise. There has never been a better time for unionism to come together to lobby for a minimal interpretation of the protocol, a sea border as frictionless as possible and a genuine “best of both worlds” outcome for Northern Ireland.

Instead, all unionist parties will be joining the DUP on the sidelines while everyone else does Brexit’s hard work.

It is becoming a custom.