Newton Emerson: ‘Cash for ash’ inquiry report priced into Stormont already

The report of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) inquiry will be published tomorrow, one month short of three years after the inquiry’s first public meeting.

There has been disquiet in Northern Ireland at the exact timing of the report's release, on a Friday before a holiday weekend, with DUP leader Arlene Foster scheduled to be in the United States alongside Sinn Féin deputy first minister Michelle O'Neill. This looks like a classic civil service ploy to bury bad news, as many journalists and some politicians have noted.

Yet civil servants and ministers have not determined the report's timing. The inquiry is "owned" by Stormont's Sinn Féin-controlled department of finance, but chair Sir Patrick Coghlin was given responsibility for publication to avoid any perceptions of political interference.

Sir Patrick, a retired judge, could scarcely have picked a worse moment to reduce such perceptions. In reality, the report was held up for a year while ministers and officials exercised their right of reply to findings in the first draft – a increasingly problematic convention.

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It is unfortunate this lengthy delay led precisely to the Friday before St Patrick’s Day.

Footage of Foster and O’Neill glad-handing their way around New York and Washington would have been a striking answer to any criticism in the report of the DUP leader in particular or the DUP and Sinn Féin’s governing style in general.

Coronavirus

As luck would have it, coronavirus has rendered this distraction redundant. Both women have cancelled their trip and will be in Northern Ireland preparing for an epidemic that will command all media attention.

The weary truth is that everything the RHI report is likely to say was priced into Stormont three months ago, when devolution was restored.

Foster caused the collapse of devolution in early 2017 by refusing to step aside temporarily during an RHI investigation. Sinn Féin then made her resignation its only red line on returning to government. This line was blurred within months. In the absurd length of time that has since elapsed, the inquiry has heard jaw-dropping public testimony, a book by News Letter political editor Sam McBride has topped the best-seller list, the projected cost of the heating scheme has been scaled back considerably and senior figures in the DUP, Sinn Féin and the civil service have left their posts.

The story has dragged on and been trawled through to the point where it feels over. This perception was effectively formalised in the January deal to resurrect Stormont, entitled New Decade, New Approach. It requires a list of oversight and spending reforms linked to RHI that openly anticipate the recommendations of the inquiry. The British government gets a new role in policing Stormont’s spending, but otherwise all is forgiven.

The DUP and Sinn Féin forgave each other for RHI as far back as February 2018, when they almost reached a deal to return to government, before the DUP walked away over Irish language legislation.

Powersharing is exposed as dependent not on rules or even relationships but on whether the ruthless self-interest of the two main parties coincides

Republicans claim all the issues in Stormont’s collapse, from RHI to the Irish language, were linked by DUP disrespect. The unionist party appears to have accepted that argument. DUP and Sinn Féin ministers have put on a faultless show of cross-community civility in the revived executive. This was demonstrated again as Foster and O’Neill cancelled their St Patrick’s Day trip, with statements of the tone “after you”, “no, after you”.

Mood of co-operation

A looming RHI report has encouraged good behaviour, as both parties know they are due an unflattering verdict. That politeness, for as long as it lasts, could be the report’s main achievement. Promises made in New Decade, New Approach of reforms to the civil service and the appointment of special advisers already look ephemeral. London is keeping a tighter grip on the purse strings by just giving Stormont less money than it wants. There is a new mood of co-operation in the executive but no real sense of a new way of doing business.

If RHI leaves a lasting legacy, it may well be public cynicism with how events have been brought to a close. A scandal that supposedly required every aspect of government in Northern Ireland to be transformed has been waved away by two smiling first ministers, one of them the key figure in the story. Objections that Sinn Féin considered serious enough to collapse Stormont must now apparently be downplayed to preserve it. Powersharing is exposed as dependent not on rules or even relationships but on whether the ruthless self-interest of Northern Ireland’s two main parties coincides.

At least the ballot box is where that is judged. In the 2017 assembly election, triggered by Stormont’s collapse, unionist voters punished the DUP by switching to Alliance.

Sinn Féin, whose support initially increased, tried to turn this into a constitutional battle – until its own voters began switching to Alliance.

That rise in the centre ground has now taken on a life of its own. Tomorrow’s report is yesterday’s news.