Thabo Mbeki is right to insist that involving Mugabe in negotiations is the right policy, writes Bryan Mukandi
DID ROBERT Mugabe lose the election? Of course he did. Did Morgan Tsvangirai get enough of the vote to assume office without a run-off? The answer to that question is not so clear cut. Is there even going to be a run-off or a change in power? I doubt that anyone knows. Zimbabwe's political situation can best be compared to an aircraft on auto-pilot, without a pilot in sight, running out of fuel, and with malfunctioning engines. The only question that should really matter is what kind of landing there will be.
The country is at the mercy of the security chiefs. Zimbabwe is a de facto police state. But this is nothing new. It has been a police state for quite some time now, perhaps going back to Ian Smith's days. But it has not remained static since then. There are those who like to invoke the ghost of Ian Smith in the light of the disaster that is Mugabe. Few, if any, of those people are black. The truth is that even at its worst, the Mugabe regime has been a lesser evil than Ian Smith's, except, of course, for some white people. Apartheid can only seem to have been a better time to those not caught in its shackles.
Change in Zimbabwe, and in many other places for that matter, is going to be a process, not an event. The situation in Kenya gives the best clues about how democracy is going to take root in a lot of the developing world. It is going to come about by negotiation, compromise and, unfortunately, as a result of much human suffering. That is pretty much how democracy came about in the western world.
What a lot of the rest of the world often forgets is the way by which the concept of democracy came to be in Africa. The English had the luxury of watching the French revolution and then negotiating their way around such a bloody conflict. In Africa, democracy was something that applied to the settlers, not those who were native to the continent. In the same way that many in Ireland who experienced abuse at the hands of representatives of the church see it as an oppressive institution, many in Africa struggle with the concept of western democracy. So much so that Mugabe's frequent denunciations of western leaders resonate with so many in Africa. He is not just popular with the elite, but with many common people - just not with those he rules. Those countries that have risen above their colonial pasts without the kind of instability seen in Zimbabwe are to be emulated. Still, in the same way that society empathises with those who come out of very dysfunctional homes and struggle to integrate into society, Africa deserves all the patience and empathy the world can muster.
Zimbabweans were at war three decades ago. They will not go down that road again so soon. There will not be a significant mass uprising. Some 70 per cent of the people live in the countryside and are too isolated to be able to mount a meaningful protest. Of the three million living in exile, most are young urban Zimbabweans, the very group that might have taken to the streets. There will not be bodies littered on the streets.
A more likely scenario is that if a state of emergency is imposed, or the election results are just permanently ignored, people will vote with their feet. More will creep into neighbouring Zambia, Botswana and South Africa. Those who are highly skilled but have chosen to remain in the country will rethink that decision and many will go to Australia, New Zealand, the United States and Britain. Zimbabwe will continue to disintegrate and there will be a palace coup.
It is going to be economics, and not the will of the people, that will lead to his removal. When that happens, because it will be in the best interests of the ruling class, some form of government of national unity will be formed. Over time, to attract foreign investment, there will be more electoral reform. The media will slowly be opened up. Political parties will be left to campaign in a freer environment. Election fraud will subside. Over time, places like Zimbabwe will become stable democracies. But do not expect that to happen soon.
South African president Thabo Mbeki is right to a large degree. He argues that direct criticism and sanctions have not fazed Mugabe. He goes on to say that keeping him at the table is the only way to bring about any kind of change in Zimbabwe. This is more or less the same approach taken by much of the EU and the US regarding Russia and China. Progress, however slow, is being made and the best hope for helping it along is dialogue.
Unfortunately, Mbeki is likely to be remembered in the West as Africa's Neville Chamberlain, his desire for dialogue being seen as a policy of appeasement. But appeasement may be the only way of keeping Mugabe from turning into a Kim Il-Sung and Zimbabwe into a North Korea.
Change is going to come to Zimbabwe. But there needs to be a greater desire to understand the world as seen by others and to maintain as much dialogue as possible. It is also imperative to understand the role that economic investment and development can play. A healthy realisation that there are some things that will only change with divine intervention does not hurt either. It is what keeps many of my compatriots and I going.
...
Bryan Mukandi lives in Galway but qualified as a doctor in Zimbabwe.