Mr Trimble has won to fight another day in the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party. Not for the first time, he has seen off his arch-rival, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, with an assertive challenge, moderated the decommissioning demands of his internal critics, and emerged with a marginally stronger endorsement from the Ulster Unionist Council than he did last May. But the tactics which he had to employ to sustain his position must be a cause of serious concern for the two governments since they could, if implemented to the letter, threaten the whole edifice of the Belfast Agreement.
To secure a victory by 54 per cent to 46 per cent, Mr Trimble put a compromise package of proposals before delegates at the Waterfront Hall on Saturday. He threatened to prevent the two Sinn Fein Ministers, Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun, from taking part in North/South Ministerial Council meetings if the IRA does not engage meaningfully with the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning and make reasonable progress.
He demanded that the IICD become more "proactive" by reporting once a month and setting timetables and deadlines for the completion of its work. He advocated that Unionists should withdraw from selected categories of the North/South Ministerial Council and the British/Irish Council if the two governments and/or other parties interfered with these sanctions. He called for a moratorium on the reform of the RUC until peace is secure. The implied deadline for the fulfilment of these goals is the next UUC meeting in January.
On one reading, Mr Trimble's decision to move the goalposts to stave-off defeat within his own party could cause irreversible damage to the Belfast Agreement. The framework of the agreement was built uniquely on inclusivity and put to the people, North and South, in referendums more than two years ago. The establishment of formal North/South institutions was the quid pro quo which enabled nationalists and republicans to change Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution and participate in an internal assembly in Stormont. This progress, which has brought peace to the streets of Northern Ireland and facilitated the establishment of an inclusive Executive, could now be jeopardised.
However, Mr Trimble's position is more nuanced and complicated than that. The bottom line is conditional. The sanctions will be lifted if the IRA "engages" with the decommissioning body and "makes reasonable progress". These requirements have to be set against the reasonable expectation of all unionists - and nationalists in this State last May - that the IRA would put weapons beyond use in a complete and verifiable way. An independently verifiable system of putting arms beyond use was interpreted to be the only acceptable means of securing the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons.
Mr Trimble announced last July that there would be a crisis in the autumn if the IRA did not engage meaningfully on the issue of disarmament. The second re-inspection of IRA dumps announced last week was minimal. His warning has come to pass. It now behoves the two governments to respond with one voice to the sanctions set out by Mr Trimble. The initial reactions from the Northern Secretary, Mr Mandelson, and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, would not suggest a united approach. The Northern Minister for Health, Ms de Brun, is scheduled to meet her southern counterpart, Mr Martin, in the North/South Council next Friday. There is a lot at stake and limited time to play for it.