Olga Sukhenko, the mayor of Motyzhyn, a satellite town of Kyiv, was found dead – dumped with her husband and son in a pit grave – when the town was liberated by Ukrainian forces five days ago. She had been kidnapped by Vladimir Putin’s soldiers on March 23rd. Her execution, presumably after torture and threats to the lives of her husband and son, was the price of refusing to betray her community and country by co-operating with those bent on their destruction. She is one of hundreds and thousands of the civilian victims of Putin’s war crimes.
Putin’s war on Ukraine is simply so wrong that it cannot be allowed to succeed in any colourable way. Off-ramps are no longer the issue; defeat for Putin is the only acceptable outcome. Western leaders have no option but to back the Ukrainian army in its fight for the freedom and integrity of their democracy.
Military victory of any kind for Putin would unravel the credibility and cohesion of the free world, plunge it into recrimination and bring about every risk of a total European war within less than five years. This is the bleak scenario with which we are faced; it is the problem of all of us now.
If the European states have to suffer an energy cut-off, that is a price worth paying to stop Putin's plan to subjugate their eastern flank
Putin’s evil determination to put Ukraine into a veritable meat-grinder is repugnant. He thinks that he can rain down such destruction on the people, economy and infrastructure of Ukraine that they will in the end opt to come to terms with his demands. That simply cannot be permitted.
Military equipment
The West has to tighten the sanctions screw further and further. The West has to give the Ukrainians every necessary type of military equipment to ensure not merely that they survive but so that Putin’s military and security apparatus concludes that it will fail utterly in following Putin’s commands.
The Russian people are fed lies and propaganda; but they are not to be taken for fools. The West must get the message through to them. They will not win this war and the longer it goes on the more permanent will be the damage that sanctions will do to them. If they want to revert to Soviet-style boundaries for Kremlin power, they will have to live permanently with Soviet-style economics and Soviet-style queues.
If the European states have to suffer an energy cut-off, that is a price worth paying to stop Putin’s plan to subjugate their eastern flank and threaten their freedom.
If Putin’s government does not sustain a defeat, the Moscow-Beijing totalitarian alliance will unleash wars in pursuit of a joint aim to become the dominant force on this planet. If, on the other hand, Putin is beaten, Beijing will have to recalibrate its aims. The West has to demonstrate to Beijing that in backing Putin, it is backing a loser. Sadly, the West’s choice is as stark as that.
If Putin is the loser in Ukraine, the Russian people will realise that soon enough
What is the alternative? Allow Putin to grab part of Ukraine? Allow him to hold out the example of Ukraine to Baltic and Caucasus states? Allow him to subvert and manipulate emerging democracies in the Balkans? Allow western Europe to become a hostage to Putin by reopening gas pipelines? Allow him to impose huge damage on western economies without consequence? Resume normal relations with his kleptocracy? Open Europe again to his cohort of oligarchs? Pretend, as we have done, that we don’t notice Russia’s cyberwarfare on services, including the Health Service Executive? Pretend to forget Litvinenko, the Salisbury poisonings, and FSB campaigns of intimidation and blackmail? Resume business as usual, leaving Ukraine a charred wreck – Putin’s charnel house?
Overplayed hand
These simply aren’t options now. Putin has overplayed his hand and has asked to see the West’s cards. Is the West bluffing? In the end, any off-ramps on Putin’s terms are really no more than exits stage-left for the survival of European democracy. It is not a matter of demanding regime change in Moscow; if Putin is the loser in Ukraine, the Russian people will realise that soon enough. His fate will lie in the hands of his own people then.
There is no alternative but to supply Kyiv with the hardware, intelligence and logistical support it needs to beat back the Russian bear. Russian ships in the Black Sea launching missiles at Odesa are themselves vulnerable to missiles if the Ukrainians are given them.
Looking at images of destroyed Russian armour, and considering the accounts given by Russian deserters, Putin’s capacity to prosecute or sustain his war in Ukraine is very limited. His generals know him now as a bloodthirsty gambler with no winning streak. They know that a succession of Aleppo- and Grozny-like sieges will backfire in Europe, where the eyes of the world are watching their every action.
Putin is not immune from consequences; his army and his people must face them.