EXPERTS INFORM me that Martin McGuinness has little chance of victory in the upcoming election.
Psephological orthodoxy argues voters for other parties are more likely to give their second preference to a horse in a hat than to a Sinn Féin candidate. When that American singer and the lady from Sex and the City– have you seen Mary's posters? – get eliminated, Dobbin and his sombrero will get more of a boost than the cobalt-eyed teetotaller.
But, as recent polls have shown, McGuinness could do surprisingly well in first preferences. Obviously, hardcore Sinn Féin voters will back their man. Many old-school radicals see McGuinness as the most left wing of the candidates. But the most significant surge could come from that grouping we shall, for want of a less profane term, call the Sod You Tendency.
The Irish do sometimes overstate their maverick status. You’ll find as much drab conformity in the rustic pubs of Connemara as you’ll encounter in the book clubs of Basingstoke. When it comes to elections, however, the Republic’s citizens do still enjoy offering two fingers to their supposed betters.
It is for this reason that Fine Gael’s attacks on McGuinness and the less temperate media coverage of his campaign could prove hugely counter-productive.
Consider one headline from the Sunday Independent.A little less than a month ago, the organ declared that the results of a poll indicated a "67 per cent 'no' to Áras Provo". In these more tolerant times, it's hard to imagine even the DUP describing a potential McGuinness presidency in those terms.
An image of Uachtarán na hÉireann donning bandoliers and black beret to greet the King of Tonga swims into the reader’s unwelcoming brain. Miriam O’Callaghan’s robust questioning of the candidate earlier this week will have contributed to any nascent persecution complex.
If I were Martin McGuinness (a big “if”) I would, however, not be entirely unhappy about these outbreaks of hostility. Despite the evidence offered by the success of the recent Jedward album, the nation is not populated entirely by gap-toothed morons. Martin can handle himself against Miriam. But, when considering that headline, quite a few voters, reluctant to be overly bossed around, will respond with a firm, uncompromising “Sod you, buddy!” It’s not as if the president will have the power to invade the Isle of Man. (The head of State is officially supreme commander of the Defence Forces, but, as I understand it, he or she has to go through a few formalities before launching a foreign war.) Wiping the smiles off a few establishment faces might, for the Sod You Tendency, be motivation enough to propel McGuinness towards the Phoenix Park.
Am I overstating the case? Only a little. Consider the Lisbon Treaty referendums. During the first staging, the “No” campaign had its fair share of decent arguments. But, among swing voters, the most commonly stated reason for rejecting it was a notion that the electorate was being taken for granted. The very fact that the government was advising – some would say “ordering” – the masses to vote Yes seemed justification enough for saying “sod you” to Brussels.
It’s not as if it mattered very much. At that stage the taps still delivered hot and cold running money. We blew our noses on gold leaf and lined the cat’s litter tray with beluga. A year later, after economic meltdown, when it began to look as if we needed European support after all, the electorate fell back into line. The Sod You Tendency is interested more in gesture politics than in affecting any meaningful change.
Think of all those “maverick” politicians who, despite involvement in significant scandals, have been returned comfortably to the Dáil. When, earlier this year, the good voters of Tipperary shrugged off the Moriarty report’s findings and once again elected Michael Lowry, echoes of “sod you” could be heard wafting their way towards the smart alecks in Dublin. Only a fool would bet against Michael Healy-Rae – innocent beneficiary of the Phonegate conspiracy – securing another term for Kerry South.
Surprise has been expressed that, despite representing the largest party in the Dáil, the Fine Gael presidential candidate has fared so badly in the polls. The SYT would reply that his association with the current establishment is the very reason for his inability to shine.
In the unlikely event that the gesturing malcontents do secure McGuinness the presidency, he should, however, not get too comfortable on his throne. It’s difficult to reach out to proud outsiders from the comfort of a city-centre mansion. In seven years’ time, another supposed media victim would, surely, invite voters to give Martin the finger. Mind you, I wouldn’t want to be the first person to say “sod you” to Martin McGuinness.