Only Brian Cowen can be regarded as completely safe to retain his seat, writes NOEL WHELAN
AT ANY other time in the history of Fianna Fáil, it would have been unthinkable for TDs, in the absence of a vacancy, to talk openly about their leadership ambitions and more generally about the approach the party should take to selecting its next leader.
The current surreal nature of politics combined with the level of pessimism – or realism – in Fianna Fáil’s ranks about its electoral prospects has already turned minds and tongues to who should succeed Brian Cowen after polling day.
One reason which may explain why Micheál Martin, Mary Hanafin, Dara Calleary and others chose to offer a view on the leadership when asked is that they know the nature of political media is such that, even this close to an election, they were more likely to get exposure for their views on that subject than any comments they might make on policy proposals.
All were rewarded with front-page coverage and radio attention which is what they wish for most as they struggle to hold Dáil seats. There is no doubt that the current focus of all Fianna Fáil parliamentarians is not on the leadership contest itself, or their own leadership prospects, as much as their personal survival in the forthcoming election.
Only in March when the general election count is over will it be clear who can stand for or vote in the next Fianna Fáil leadership election. In order to be leader one must be a member of Dáil Éireann and the party’s rules currently provide that only sitting TDs can vote in the contest. On current polls, half of those currently entitled to vote in a Fianna Fáil leadership race will not be in a position to do so after the election because they will not be members of Dáil Éireann.
In addition many of those senior members who aspire to succeed Brian Cowen may not be around to vie for his job. Three of the 12 Fianna Fáil Cabinet members have already announced their retirements. Of those remaining, only half can be regarded as safe and only Cowen himself can be regarded as completely safe.
Fianna Fáil is likely to lose a seat in Mary Coughlan’s Donegal South West constituency but in the absence of Pat “the Cope” Gallagher the Tánaiste should hold on. While her likely running mate, Brian Ó Dómhnaill, has the advantage of having being before the electorate recently, Coughlan’s base is clearly stronger.
Local polling in Dublin West suggests Brian Lenihan cannot take anything for granted but should hold his seat, not least because there is an additional seat there. Brendan Smith should be safe in the Cavan half of that five-seater, aided by Rory O’Hanlon’s retirement. Éamon Ó Cuív holds one of two seats in the Galway West five-seater. With over a quota on the first count in 2007 he should hold on, at Frank Fahey’s expense, if the party loses a seat.
Micheál Martin, Mary Hanafin, Batt O’Keeffe and Pat Carey all face real difficulties in constituencies where Fianna Fáil holds two seats but can only hold one if the party’s vote share falls at the rate suggested in national polls. In 2007 Batt O’Keeffe was over 2,000 votes behind his Cork North West colleague, Michael Moynihan. Much of this constituency was then new to O’Keeffe as an outgoing deputy for Cork South Central. He will hope his enhanced profile as a Minister and the planting of wider roots in the constituency can bridge that gap. Similarly Pat Carey was 700 votes behind his running mate, Noel Ahern, in Dublin North West in 2007.
Micheál Martin’s position is slightly more comfortable as he was ahead of his Cork South Central running mate, Michael McGrath, but only by 1,360 votes. Fianna Fáil ran three candidates in 2007 and much will depend on whether Martin or McGrath can capture the traditional component of the vote which John Dennehy used to get in Togher and its surrounds.
On paper, Mary Hanafin looks safer in that she was an impressive 3,297 first preferences ahead of Barry Andrews in 2007 but she must be worried that things will have evened out between them since and/or that the traditional multiplier effect on any national swing in places like Dún Laoghaire could see them both lose their seats.
Even young pretenders on whom attention might focus if the party was minded to skip a generation for a leader have at best a 50/50 chance of being in the mix. Michael McGrath and Barry Andrews are both vulnerable for the reasons set out above. Thomas Byrne took a second Fianna Fáil seat in the Meath East three-seater in 2007; there will be no second seats for Fianna Fáil in three seaters in 2011.
Darragh O’Brien is trying to hold one of two Fianna Fáil seats in an increasingly crowded four-seater in Dublin North while Peter Power will struggle to hold a second seat in the Limerick East five-seater dominated by Willie O’Dea. Dara Calleary’s survival prospects in Mayo improved considerably following Beverley Flynn’s decision to retire.
Talk of who might lead the party is therefore premature. The parliamentary party mood and that of party membership nationally will very much depend on how badly the party fares in the election. That may even determine whether pressure comes for a change in how the party elects its leader. Most parties in western democracies use an electoral college model including some form of direct input by party membership. A demoralised Fianna Fáil, facing a lengthy spell in opposition might be wise to take its time in selecting a new leader and broadening the numbers with a say in the choice.