The prospect of a lasting peace in Northern Ireland, with inclusive, stable political institutions, is again within touching distance. It has yet to be made a reality.
Yesterday's talks at Downing Street explored the capacity of the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Féin to do a deal that will see elections held to the Northern Ireland Assembly before early December and a new power-sharing Executive established. Six months ago, the two governments and the Northern parties were in a similar position. But the unwillingness of the IRA to rule out all future paramilitary activity, including weapons procurement, punishment beatings, targeting and intelligence gathering, failed to satisfy Mr David Trimble. The talks ended in failure.
The atmosphere is very much better this time. The UUP leader, Mr Trimble, has been negotiating directly with the Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams, for the past number of weeks. Both men have employed conciliatory language. The importance of this development should not be underestimated. In the past, the Northern parties tended to look to London or Dublin to conduct sensitive negotiations or to apply political pressure. Taking direct responsibility for their own political affairs reflects a growing maturity and confidence and augurs well for the re-establishment of the Executive.
Mr Trimble said yesterday that real progress had been made and the work would continue. But he declined to go into detail on the outstanding issues, other than to say he wished to see the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons. Mr Adams recognised there had been a series of positive engagements, but said that work remained to be done. His public acceptance that existing obstacles will have to be surmounted after the elections, if not before, is a hopeful sign. Both the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, declined to be interviewed.
They let it be known, however, that although advances had been made, time was running out and significant commitments had to be made if the negotiations were to end in success.
A failure of nerve, or of judgment, by the IRA leadership at this stage would be very damaging. Sinn Féin has seized the leadership of the nationalist community and is negotiating directly with the Ulster Unionist Party. Should those talks succeed, with agreement reached on the re-establishment of an Executive, it could go into the elections confident of replacing the SDLP as the largest nationalist party. An agreement would further strengthen the hand of Mr Trimble and underpin the UUP in its struggle with the Democratic Unionist Party. The establishment of the Independent Monitoring Commission, which will adjudicate on whether the IRA and loyalist paramilitaries have halted their activities, is a further advance. Its existence will provide reassurance that sanctions will follow any breach of the democratic process.