The Irish and British governments will try again to secure agreement on those political and security arrangements that eluded them at Leeds Castle earlier this month. A position paper on the accountability of ministers, North/South bodies and the Office of First and Deputy First Minister is being prepared by officials in an attempt to secure the re-establishment of the institutions under the Belfast Agreement and the completion of IRA decommissioning. An assessment of where things stand is being sent to the various parties to encourage further dialogue. The news that Dr Ian Paisley, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, is prepared to meet the Taoiseach in Dublin on Thursday is encouraging.
The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, is understandably anxious to prevent political drift and risk losing what he considers to be a firm offer by republicans to complete IRA decommissioning and to end all paramilitary activity. But, as he conceded in a weekend interview, while the two governments may put forward proposals for consideration, only the political parties themselves can reach a lasting agreement.
Bad-tempered exchanges between representatives of the DUP and Sinn Féin and the SDLP in recent days would suggest an absence of political trust and an unwillingness to make the kind of compromises necessary to reach agreement at this time. And while pressure from the two governments might help to change that situation, it could also contribute to a growing intransigence as the various parties consider their options in advance of Westminster elections.
One of the most persistent and frustrating aspects of the peace process has been the reluctance of those involved to follow the lead of the two governments. Movement by republicans, in particular, was painstakingly slow in relation to decommissioning and paramilitary activity. And the DUP, which campaigned against the Belfast Agreement, appears to have adopted a go-slow approach in policy alteration. Nonetheless, all parties now seem to be committed to devolved government and to the resumption of some form of power-sharing executive.
If the prize of IRA decommissioning is to be seized and the various institutions re-established, careful choreography will be required. The IRA has made it clear that its undertaking to disarm must be preceded by a DUP commitment to share power. The DUP will not even talk directly to Sinn Féin, so the potential for disagreement is immense. At the same time, the SDLP is fiercely resisting any change that would undermine the fundamentals of the agreement. And the UUP still holds that the DUP is incapable of sharing power.
But, incremental progress is being made. Technical issues surrounding the operation of the Belfast Agreement can be resolved without affecting its architecture. The issues of IRA arms and policing are moving towards completion.