Green growth stalled last year as the party lost its two MEPs. This weekend they will seek out the green shoots of recovery, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
In two years' time they could be in government with perhaps two cabinet members and a half dozen or more Dáil deputies. On the other hand, they could be the victims of a Fine Gael resurgence, coming back as a three-TD party of opposition. Party members gathering in Cork tonight for their annual weekend conference know they have had a bad year. They lost both MEPs and their local election results were disappointing. They followed this with a bout of internal dithering over whether to run Éamonn Ryan for the presidency, before deciding against.
They have a relatively small (but growing, they say) membership of 1,500, but they count their members rather more strictly than do some other parties. They go into the weekend still struggling to get a coherent distinctive big message across.
Individual deputies have certainly been to the fore on individual Green issues - party leader Trevor Sargent on the prospect of an impending oil crisis, John Gormley on the nature of the EU, Éamonn Ryan on what he believes is the folly of expanding Dublin's M50 motorway.
But a central national message of how a Green Party in government will improve quality of life still struggles to emerge and be heard.
The view within the Green Party is that success or failure at the next general election depends on their ability to put across a striking vision of what it is they want to achieve. Faced with Sinn Féin and a plethora of independents, they can no longer rely on attracting a growing "protest" vote alone.
Many in the party were impressed with the contribution made by Reinhard Butikofer, co-leader of the German Greens, at last year's party conference in Galway. He told them of the key importance of distilling the wide range of individual Green policies into a small number of core issues that would be preconditions for entry into government. "Don't make promises you can't keep," was his message.
He said the German Greens had learned from experience that small parties in government had to compromise on many issues, so they had to concentrate on achieving core aims. Indeed, the PDs have shown here (ending Dublin smog, giving the city a proper taxi service, driving tax cuts) that small parties can be recognised and remembered for specific achievements.
This year Pekka Haavisto, former Green minister for the environment in Finland, will tell them about life in government.
"Greens Mean Business" is the slogan for this year's conference. It is intended to convey two things. Firstly, that Green Party policies, contrary to the depiction of them by the current Government parties, are good for business. And secondly, that they mean to get things done by going into government.
Trevor Sargent listed some of these core aims yesterday. The increase in the price of oil from $10 a barrel in 1997 to $50 today shows that current energy consumption patterns are just unsustainable, he says. A rebalancing of transport spending towards public transport and away from roads is not only a "green" idea: it is the only logical economic option for Ireland, the seventh most oil-dependent economy in the world, he says.
The production of alternative fuel sources provides business opportunities, he says, as does the need to improve building standards to provide proper insulation. The fact that 70 per cent of organic food is imported points to another obvious business opportunity.
The party's view that economic growth figures are not the true measure of the progress of a society is caricatured by the Government as an "anti-growth" message. The party obviously rejects this, but acknowledges that there is a widespread view currently that economic growth is the end to which all citizens must be dedicated.
"To even speak in terms of society is to venture against the grain of established Irish political opinion," the party's economic policy document, currently being updated, says. "But what are economies for? After all, growth up or down is only a means and not an end. We should be measuring progress in the areas of sustainability and human welfare."
There will be considerable emphasis on the party's economic message at the weekend. They believe in social partnership, low inflation and public spending growth at 5 per cent or less in real terms. They want continued infrastructure spending, but with more on public transport and less on roads. They want less income tax but more tax on capital and on the use of environmental resources. They are pragmatic, ideological, about State ownership.
Last year's conference made a conscious effort to broaden the perception of the Greens' message - to show that it was not just about the quality of the environment but quality of life, including issues such as childcare, health, education.
Last June's elections did not show any surge in public appreciation of the relevance of this outlook. Over the next two years the party hopes to rectify this, unencumbered by questions about whether Enda Kenny or Pat Rabbitte would agree with this policy or that.
Of the two motions on electoral strategy to be debated this weekend, one rules out any pre-election pact with other parties for now, but leaves open the possibility of agreeing one close to the election. The other rules out such a pact completely. So whichever is approved, there will be no early agreement in principle to such a pact. They are determined that for most if not all of the rest of this Dáil, they will direct attention towards what they would do in government, rather than with whom they would do it.
They have few obvious prospects for new TDs. In Carlow Kilkenny, Mary White came close last time. Her outing in last year's European Parliament elections, although disappointing in terms of the result, will have boosted her profile further but she still needs to improve to have a chance of gaining a seat.
Niall Ó Brolcháin in Galway West performed respectably in 2002 but remained far short of what is needed to challenge for a seat. Similarly, Deirdre de Búrca in Wicklow came seventh in this five-seater last time and needs a big vote increase to have a chance.
Nor will they necessarily hold the six seats they have. A pre-election embrace from Fine Gael could make survival very difficult for three Green deputies. If Fine Gael gained a greater boost than the Greens from the prospect of an alternative government, John Gormley in Dublin South East, Éamonn Ryan in Dublin South and Ciarán Cuffe in Dún Laoghaire would be under significant pressure to hold on.
After tonight's opening session in Cork, an African group will provide entertainment. Tomorrow morning will kick off with a four-minute poetry reading. Aspects of the party's distinctive way of doing business live on, but most of the weekend will be concentrated on the serious business of how to win political power.