Sir, – It seems strange that the impressive team of property experts quoted in Joe Brennan's article "Housing crisis: Seven solutions to Ireland's biggest problem" (Business, January 24th) focused their expertise on the supply side of this conundrum, completely neglecting the demand side. In any economic analysis of the scarcity of a commodity or resource, this most basic law will be invoked to get to the root of the problem. And yet, nowhere in the commentary by top economists, property developers and financiers is there any mention of what could be driving Ireland's demand for housing.
Instead your readers get the now-familiar litany of ideas about rejigging the tax system, loosening mortgage restrictions and tearing up onerous building regulations.
This reticence may be due to the fact that demand for housing is being driven in large part by a social trend nobody in public life wants to discuss, except in the most superficial terms – inward migration. The reasons for this are complex, but as with Ireland of decades ago, there are some topics which are taboo.
The experts of the Central Bank, however, were not shy of attempting a frank assessment of the demand side. In November 2019 the bank published “Population Change and Housing Demand in Ireland”, noting that Ireland’s fertility rate at Census 2016 was 1.8 and unlikely to change over the next 50 years. If a total fertility rate (TFR) average of 2.1 is the minimum number of children born in a country for that country’s population to remain stable, then the surge in Ireland’s population must be attributed to another factor – inward migration.
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The Central Bank acknowledges this, stating: “Given the contribution of migration to the change in population over time, migration also has an important influence on housing demand”, and goes on to project an annual demand of 33,000 houses a year until 2040 – based on a net inward migration total of 33,700 in the year to April 2019. With admirable honesty, the bank attaches a caveat to the effect that projections may be unreliable, as “future migration trends are extremely uncertain”.
That’s putting it mildly. If US tech giant LinkedIn can announce plans to add another 4,000 jobs (“LinkedIn confirms plans for massive campus in Dublin city centre”, News, January 10th) in an era of full employment, one must assume it plans to recruit those workers from abroad. In all the excitement about Ireland’s burgeoning status as a global hub for technology and finance, nobody is asking the obvious question – where are all these people going to live?
In the commuter belt counties around Dublin, the answer appears to be a “let it rip” attitude to development. Mega-estates of houses and apartments are being waved through by An Bord Pleanála under changed planning laws which cut out the local authority and dismiss the concerns of local residents. Here in Clane we are now confronted with the prospect of recently granted – and pending – applications for over a thousand residential units. The population surge will put serious strain on public services and reduce quality of life in general.
Ultimately, the Irish people must be allowed decide what kind of country we want for our children.
One where progress is measured in GDP or one where our children can afford to live and raise their own families?
It is apparent that decision will not be made at this election while the prohibition on a grown-up debate persists and the polite fiction maintained that the housing crisis can be fixed by concreting over the countryside. – Yours, etc,
PHILIP DONNELLY,
Clane,
Co Kildare.