Sir, – Bernard Durkan TD ("Lotto should be investigated after six months of no winners, Fine Gael TD says," November 19th) falls into a common logical fallacy. He seems to be under the impression that as the jackpot hasn't been won in the past six months, with each non-jackpot winner draw occurring, it becomes more likely that there will be a winner at the next draw. This is entirely incorrect and means that Mr Durkan has fallen into the classic Monte Carlo fallacy also known as the gambler's fallacy.
The odds of a single line winning the jackpot never change, which, as I’ve previously stated (Letters, November 11th), is one in 10,737,573. The probability of there being a winner of the jackpot does not depend on the previous draw as a whole new set of lines are played each draw. The only thing to depend on previous winning or not winning is the value of the jackpot itself.
The best example of this fallacy comes from an event in 1913 in its namesake, the Monte Carlo Casino. During a game of roulette, the ball fell on black 26 times in a row, which has a combined probability of around one in 66.6 million. Gamblers lost millions as they bet against black in the false belief that the streak was affecting the randomness of the wheel, and therefore it must be followed by a long streak of red.
– Yours, etc,
PAUL LAVIN,
Harold’s Cross,
Dublin 6W.