TONY ALLWRIGHT,
Madam, - Garret FitzGerald's column of December 19th about Irish unity being a remote prospect appears too narrow in its focus because we need to look not only at census figures but voting patterns and their relevance to section 1 of the Belfast Agreement.
It provides for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should become part of a sovereign united Ireland or remain united with Britain. Under the Agreement the Secretary of State is required to provide for such a poll if it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish to form part of a united Ireland.
It is relevant to ask how the Secretary of State would make such a decision. It would surely not be on the basis of census figures with all their limitations, especially in relation to voting intentions. Nor would it be reasonable to rely on opinion polls given such great uncertainty about the nature of the new state which would be created by the removal of the border.
There must be a significant number of people in each community in the North whose attitude towards the union is not determined by a rigid ideological mindset.
These pragmatists are likely to settle for the status quo when there is no hard information on which to make an informed decision about the alternative - which to some may, in any case, seem so remote or impracticable that it is not worth taking seriously.
In these circumstances it would make sense for the Secretary of State to take account of votes in a Westminster or Assembly election should the vote for unionist parties fall below 50 per cent. The 2001 census shows an adjusted figure of about 53 per cent for Protestants which is down around 5 per cent on the 1991 census and it is expected that over the medium term the percentage of Protestants will continue to decline closer to 50 per cent.
Moreover, in recent Westminster elections the percentage vote for unionist parties has been below the estimated percentage of the Protestant population. Thus in 1997 the unionist vote was 50.5 per cent.
It is true that it rose to 52.8 per cent in 2001 but it benefited from tactical voting, mainly from the Alliance Party, in favour of pro-Agreement unionists. The rise of 28,797 was not far short of the decline in the Alliance vote.
It seems likely that within the next 10 years the unionist election vote will fall below 50 per cent and should this trigger a border poll it would be essential, in the interests of properly informed democratic decision, that full details of the proposed New Ireland should be put before the electorate.
This should follow negotiations between the two governments and widespread local consultations.
If the proposal offers the prospect of long-term stability by finally ending the territorial struggle on this island and is generous to unionists without imperilling the integrity and sovereignty of the New Ireland, the prospects of a united Ireland may not be as remote as some commentators think. - Yours, etc.,
J. ROGERS, Belfast, Co Antrim.
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Madam, - Mark Durkan's and Garret FitzGerald's articles of December 20th and 21st respectively make interesting contrasts.
The day does indeed seem a long way off when a majority of the people of Northern Ireland might vote to leave the United Kingdom with a view to joining the Republic. Nevertheless, there is an inbuilt assumption that, having so voted, entry into the Republic will be automatic.
This must be far from the truth. For it is scarcely believable that a majority in the South would really themselves vote to subsume the diseased, penurious carbuncle that is Northern Ireland, subsidised by English taxpayers to the tune of £3.5 billion a year, which would, moreover, be teeming with resentful and violent unionists.
The only vote you can be sure of is that, if ever given the chance, the English taxpayers would vote overwhelmingly to rid themselves of Northern Ireland.
The only show in town is the Belfast Agreement, which all parties should view as the permanent, not transitional, way for the two communities to live and work together in mutual respect. - Yours, etc.,
TONY ALLWRIGHT, Killiney, Co Dublin.