ENDA KENNY got the crowd cheering at Fine Gael’s weekend conference when he translated US president Barack Obama’s election slogan of “yes, we can”, into a conviction message of “yes, we will”, and pledged to deliver a fair and just society to the Irish people. For a leader who has struggled to be popular, even as Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Fianna Fáil reap the whirlwind of economic mismanagement, this may have been his breakthrough moment.
The Fine Gael leader has much to do before the question of leading the next government comes to be decided. And he recognised that. When he took over as party leader, he reminded his audience, some people said it was a hopeless situation. But he had worked hard, built a strong team, revived the party and, as taoiseach, he would do the same for Ireland. It was an attractive proposition for delegates.
For six months now, Fine Gael has consistently headed Fianna Fáil by up to 10 points in the opinion polls. And candidates took quiet satisfaction from that new-found status as they prepared for the European and local elections. There was no great pizzazz. The economic situation was too uncertain for that. And Tuesday’s emergency budget overshadowed events to such an extent that the party had been obliged to outline some of its own policies.
It didn’t stop Mr Kenny from blaming the Government for getting us into the current mess. He took special care to champion the cause of the less well off. We might be in the middle of the greatest economic recession in decades, but he promised to create 100,000 new jobs and stabilise the public finances without increasing income tax rates; to make Ireland one of the most competitive economies in the world within three years and to provide a universal healthcare system. The ambition was tremendous: but the detail of where the axe would fall was in short supply. The only “painful truth” of the night was that university students would have to pay for their education following graduation.
Mr Kenny had obviously learned from last November’s conference. On that occasion, his declaration that the country could not afford the national wage agreement, while Fianna Fáil remained mute, caused his satisfaction rating to fall and created an opening for the Labour Party. This time most of the heavy economic lifting was left to finance spokesman Richard Bruton. It was a matter of playing safe, sounding reasonable and appealing to a television audience.
The conference was to have set the scene for the forthcoming local and European elections. It did. But it also opened up the prospect of an early general election and offered the party an opportunity to establish its credentials in that regard.
The collapse in Government revenues, a doubling in unemployment and the need for an emergency budget should provide Mr Kenny with a mouth-watering opportunity to break Fianna Fáil’s hegemonic grip on Irish politics in the local elections. That prospect will be determined by tomorrow’s budget.