A few days ago Jeffrey Donaldson called, yet again, for unionist unity in the face of Sinn Féin’s campaign for an early border poll: “[This election] is about a positive vision for Northern Ireland – focused on the issues that really matter – or one centred on the chaos and division of Sinn Féin’s border poll plans.”
Yet in focusing on Sinn Féin’s demand for a border poll he has played directly into Mary Lou McDonald’s hands, allowing the election to become a shadow run of that very border poll.
The election will, as ever, be a head count on the constitutional question. Donaldson knows it. McDonald knows it. So, in arguing that a victory for Sinn Féin now guarantees a push for a border poll, Donaldson is actually encouraging strategists on both sides to count the electoral numbers more closely than usual. It already seems certain unionism will continue to have a minority of MLAs (it won 40 out of 90 seats in 2017) after the election; and there’s also the likelihood of Sinn Féin emerging as the largest party and entitled to the post of first minister. That’s a double-whammy result for unionism and will shake its confidence to the core.
What will shake its confidence even more is if the overall majority of those who vote is not unambiguously unionist/pro-union. That will allow Sinn Féin– along with other civic pressure groups backing Irish unity – to make a credible case for a border poll. As it stands, the poll can only be called if the evidence suggests to a Northern Ireland secretary of state it is “likely” a poll would result in victory for the pro-united Ireland side. A unionist minority in the assembly; Sinn Féin as the largest party; and unionism representing a minority of the overall vote would add to the credibility of the border poll argument.
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Unexpected ‘moment’
Sinn Féin probably couldn’t believe its luck when the UK backed Brexit, for it presented it with one of those very rare “England’s misfortune is Ireland’s opportunity” moments. From 1998 onwards, it had talked about border polls and unity projects and even promoted a unionist outreach programme to encourage a debate with liberal, small-u unionists about a “new” Ireland. But it was all for the optics at that point and even Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness knew that the talk of unity by 2016 was nonsense.
But then 2016 did present it with an unexpected “moment”. The party had backed remain (having been anti-EC/EEC/EU for decades) in 2016: not out of any particular commitment, but because it wanted to be on the right side of the debate with the southern electorate it had been targeting so vigorously post-1998. It was canny enough to know the result presented unionism with problems, not least of which was the rise of a regenerated English nationalism which didn’t give a stuff about Northern Ireland.
And that’s why it immediately refocused so much of its campaigning – on both sides of the Border – on a poll. It played well with those in Northern Ireland who missed the comfort blanket of the EU, as well as those in the South who acknowledged that helping “our friends in the North” would best be done by unity. More importantly, Sinn Féin also knew if it failed to capitalise on the “moment”, it could be a very long time before another moment appeared.
Sinn Féin and the DUP – both of whom have enormous failings when it comes to resolving socio-economic problems in Northern Ireland – quite like the headcount element of elections. It allows them to steer voters away from the day-to-day issues which, according to opinion polls, they supposedly prioritise and bring them back to the tried and trusted manta of “you can never trust the other” side.
Appeal of unity
Sinn Féin will be hoping its southern base will be just as easily steered. It seems inevitable the post-pandemic and Ukrainian crisis financial realities will expose the weakness of its populist economic policies, making them less attractive to the broader demographic Sinn Féin still needs to propel it into government. So, it will be hoping the emotional appeal of unity and an early border poll will play into its hands.
The other thing it hopes will happen, particularly if it becomes the largest party in the North, with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister – as well as retaining its poll lead in the South – is that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will note the electoral appeal of the unity/border poll projects and “get serious” about preparing for both eventualities. Both parties know it will be Sinn Féin’s key demand for entering a coalition. They also know it will be its own headline pledge in the next election.
Sinn Féin is brilliant at playing the long game: meaning it’s always ready to take advantage when unexpected opportunities come calling. After 1998, unionism and successive Irish governments took the view that Sinn Féin kept pushing the unity buttons because it had to be seen to be doing something for its traditional voting base after it found itself sharing power with unionism in Stormont in a Northern Ireland which seemed safely anchored in the UK.
Yet the groundwork done between 1998 and 2016 ensured Sinn Féin was fully prepared to take advantage of unionist fears post-Brexit, while widening its appeal to a southern electorate which also recognised the newfound moment for reunification. I’m not sure unionism has ever fully understood the long game element of Sinn Féin strategy. Even if it hasn’t, it certainly needs one of its own if it is to survive the roll of challenges thundering its way in the next few years.
Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party