Irish Times polls show what will determine Coalition’s survival prospects

Declining public support for the Government’s Covid-19 strategy, as illustrated in the latest Irish Times opinion poll, is beginning to put a strain on relations between the coalition parties. That strain could reach breaking point if there is not a clear improvement in the situation by early summer.

A shambolic communications strategy which resulted in a depressing series of leaks over the past few weeks about the continuation of severe restrictions up to the summer and beyond, has eroded public confidence in the coalition’s ability to tackle the crisis in a coherent fashion.

The address to the nation by Taoiseach Micheál Martin on Tuesday evening at least provided clarity about what would happen in the next few weeks and there was some good news about the reopening of schools. He went a step further at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting by saying that Level 5 restrictions on outdoor activity could be eased after April 5th.

This was the first time the public had been offered some hope that life will improve if the Covid death and infection rates continue to come down. Hope was the missing ingredient in the endless warnings from Ministers and Nphet in recent weeks and it was the negative tone, as much as the restrictions themselves, that soured the public mood.

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That mood was illustrated by the finding in the poll that a majority of people believe the Government is not doing a good job in its handling of the crisis. That is in sharp contrast to the massive endorsement the previous government obtained for its handling of the first lockdown.

The growing public dissatisfaction with the Coalition was articulated by a number of speakers at the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting during the week. Michael Ring is not prone to under-statement but he summed up the problem by saying the public “is sick and tired of us”. Like others at the meeting he focused on communications, testing and vaccinations as the three problem areas.

Fine Gael remains in a strong position to attempt to reclaim its position as the most popular party in the country

If the strategy outlined by the Taoiseach begins to pay dividends by Easter and an easing of restrictions becomes possible the public mood may improve. However, the dilemma facing the Government is neatly encapsulated in the poll finding which reveals that almost a third of the electorate thinks there are too many restrictions but a quarter thinks there are too few.

That said, if there is a clear improvement in the situation, with a drop in the infection rate and an efficient roll out of the vaccine in the coming months, the coalition might be able to generate an improvement in the political climate.

Same point

What should be a help is that the UK government is easing restrictions in a similarly cautious fashion, despite its much vaunted more rapid vaccine rollout. With the availability of vaccines here set to improve dramatically in the next two months it is possible that the two countries will open up society to something approaching normal at roughly the same point in early summer. An encouraging feature of the poll is that 80 per cent of people express a willingness to take the vaccine, with that figure rising to 94 per cent among the over 65s.

Micheál Martin has not made the mistake of his British counterpart Boris Johnson in repeatedly over promising a quick fix. That may well provide a political dividend for him when, and if, the vaccine rollout is complete and the public can look back on the third lockdown as a strategy that ultimately worked.

One of the underlying problems for the Coalition illustrated by the poll is the varying fortunes of the two Coalition partners. Fine Gael has lost some support since the last poll but at 30 per cent it is well ahead of its disastrous election performance a year ago and Leo Varadkar remains the most popular party leader. It remains in a strong position to attempt to reclaim its position as the most popular party in the country at the next election.

The story for Fianna Fáil is very different. The party has dropped back to 14 per cent, a substantial decline on the 22 per cent it obtained in the election. The demographic breakdown is even more scary for the party with very low levels of support in Dublin and among those aged under 34 in all parts of the country.

There is already serious rumblings in Fianna Fáil about the party leadership and questioning of whether being in coalition with Fine Gael is strangling its prospects of recovery. Still, the only option for the moment is to knuckle down and show the public that it is capable of leading the country out of the pandemic.

One morsel of hope for Fianna Fáil is that the drop in its support has not been mirrored by a rise for Sinn Féin which has actually slipped a little since the last poll. The shift from Fianna Fáil appears to have gone mainly to rural Independents who traditionally benefit from disillusionment with the two big coalition parties. One way or another it seems that the management of the pandemic will define the Government’s survival prospects.