Irish nationalism and unionism have paralysed Westminster

Probably the most revered leader in modern British history summed up one of the great political controversies of his era in the following terms.

“It divided Great Britain; it excited the United States; the nations of Europe followed the controversy with rapt attention. Foreign politics, social politics, defence and parliamentary procedure – all were continuously involved. Above all, it became the main process by which parties gained or lost the majorities indispensable to their power.”

No, it’s not a description of the Brexit imbroglio. It is Winston Churchill’s summation of the impact of the Irish question on British politics from the 1880s to the early 1920s, which, he said, “absorbed nine-tenths of the political field and was destined for forty years to remain the principal theme of British and Imperial politics”.

Mainstream British politicians who want to do the best for their country, and for Ireland as well, are trapped

It is a strange and unexpected twist of history that Ireland, in the shape of the Border backstop, has come back to convulse British politics for the past three years every bit as much as it did in the heyday of the Irish Party.

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One of the reasons the British finally agreed to Irish independence in December 1921 was to rid their politics of an issue that had caused so much disruption for so long. And here they are again with the House of Commons in a state of chaos, the supreme court making an unprecedented intervention to uphold the sovereignty of parliament, and a prime minister using the kind of inflammatory language about his opponents that is more redolent of a tin-pot dictator than the chief minister of the crown.

Churchill’s neat summary of the impact of Ireland on British politics was contained in an essay written in the 1930s about Charles Stewart Parnell, so it was only fitting that Parnell’s name should have been cited again in the Commons by the current leader of the House, Jacob Rees Mogg, during the Brexit debate.

Mind you, Parnell, for all his disruptive political ability, never reduced the Commons to the sorry state into which it has been dragged by the Tory diehards whose suspicion and fear of Ireland seems every bit as great in 2019 as it was in the 1880s.

Political calculations

Now, as then, mainstream British politicians who want to do the best for their country, and for Ireland as well, are trapped between the irreconcilable demands of Irish nationalism and unionism, this time in the shape of the Border backstop.

Yet behind all the passion, principle and political conflict that has brought the UK to its current impasse, there lies some crude political calculations about how the Brexit issue can best be used for political advantage.

Boris Johnson used it to topple David Cameron and Theresa May. The opposition parties are attempting to use it to topple Johnson, and he is seeking to use it to force a general election which he believes he can win by framing it as a contest between parliament and the people.

His record to date should give Johnson pause for thought. No British prime minister has ever endured so many rebuffs in such a short period.

Since he took office on July 24th, Johnson has managed to squander May’s small majority; expel two former chancellors of the exchequer and Winston Churchill’s grandson from the Conservative Party; see parliament seize control of the agenda from the government; give unlawful advice to the queen; and have his decision to prorogue parliament overturned by the supreme court.

The only route to a deal now lies in some form of Northern Ireland-only backstop

After all that only a fool would predict how it will end, but in just a month the UK will face crashing out of the EU without a deal – with horrendous consequences for the Irish economy as the latest forecast by the ESRI spells out – or the final whistle will have been postponed by another spell of extra time.

The one positive in the midst of all the political chaos is that the only legal route Johnson now has to fulfilling his solemn commitment to take the UK out of the EU by October 31st is to get a deal with the EU.

Parliament has legislated against a no-deal exit, and given the supreme court’s judgment it is difficult to see how he could go against its wishes even if some of his advisers think he can.

Demands

To fulfil his pledge to leave by the end of next month and hold the general election he craves, Johnson needs to find a way of meeting the so far irreconcilable demands of Irish nationalism and unionism.

The only route to a deal now lies in some form of Northern Ireland-only backstop and to get that he has to get the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to shift in its position in a meaningful way.

It is overwhelmingly in the interests of both the British and Irish people that the UK leaves with a deal.

If the DUP is persuaded to make a substantial move Leo Varadkar and his Ministers will then have a difficult call to make because however it is couched a deal will demand some modification of the current Irish position, no matter how minor.

Enormous challenges that will define their political lives lie ahead for politicians on both sides of the Irish Sea.